摘要
为使省、市级区域更好地实施碳减排,根据2009—2019年临沂市工业碳排放数据建立可拓展的随机性环境影响评估(STIRPAT)模型,定量分析了临沂市工业碳排放量与企业固定资产、人均工业生产增加值、能源强度和能源结构的关系,通过岭回归消除各自变量之间的共线性问题,得出企业固定资产、人均工业生产增加值、能源强度、原煤占能源消耗比和净购入电力每变化1%,临沂市工业碳排放量相应变化0.069 37%,0.016 30%,0.214 60%,0.550 00%,0.214 60%。基于灰色预测模型GM(1,1)预测了人均工业生产增加值,并通过设置6种不同的情景预测了2020—2030年临沂市的工业碳排放量,通过对比结果得出,保持工业产值适度增长、加大能源结构优化、降低能源强度是减少临沂市工业碳排放的有效路径。
To stimulate the accomplishment of provincial and municipal carbon emission targets,a Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population,Affluence and Technology(STIRPAT)model is established based on the industrial carbon emission data of Linyi City from 2009 to 2019.The model quantitatively analyzes the relationship between industrial carbon emission and enterprises'fixed assets,per capita industrial production added value,energy intensity and energy structure in Linyi City.The collinearity between the variables is eliminated by ridge regression.For every 1%variation in enterprises'fixed assets,per capita industrial production added value,energy intensity,the proportion of raw coal in energy consumption and net purchased electricity will lead to 0.06937%,0.01630%,0.21460%,0.55000%and 0.21460%fluctuation in the industrial carbon emission,respectively.The per capita industrial production added value is predicted by a Grey Model,GM(1,1).The industrial carbon emissions in Linyi City from 2020 to 2030 under six different prediction scenarios are analyzed.The comparison results conclude that maintaining a moderate growth of industrial product,increasingly optimizing energy structure and controlling energy intensity are the effective ways to reduce the industrial carbon emission of Linyi City.
作者
吴彤
张兴宇
程星星
孙荣峰
王志强
耿文广
王鲁元
冯太
WU Tong;ZHANG Xingyu;CHENG Xingxing;SUN Rongfeng;WANG Zhiqiang;GENG Wenguang;WANG Luyuan;FENG Tai(Energy Research Institute of Shandong Academy of Sciences,Qilu University of Technology,Jinan 250014,China;School of Energy and Power Engineering,Shandong University,Jinan 250001,China;College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering,Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao 266590,China)
出处
《华电技术》
CAS
2021年第6期47-54,共8页
HUADIAN TECHNOLOGY
基金
国家自然科学基金青年基金资助项目(51906130)
山东省重点研发计划重大科技创新工程项目(2020CXGC011401)
山东省科学院青年基金项目(2020QN009)
山东省能源碳减排技术与资源化利用重点实验室开放课题资助项目(ECRRU201804)。
关键词
工业碳排放
碳中和
碳达峰
STIRPAT模型
岭回归
情景预测
能源强度
能源结构
低碳经济
industrial carbon emission
carbon neutrality
carbon peaking
STIRPAT model
ridge regression
scenario prediction
energy intensity
energy structure
low-carbon economy
