摘要
为实现对川藏铁路特殊环境下桥梁施工风险的动态评估,提出一种基于动态权重-二维云模型的桥梁施工风险评估模型。基于一般环境下桥梁施工的风险影响因素,考虑青藏高原复杂的地质环境和气候特征,构建川藏铁路桥梁施工风险评估指标体系,并以桥梁施工实时反馈的动态风险信息为基准,利用动态权重模型为指标赋权。以风险概率和风险后果为基础变量构建风险评估的二维云模型,以藏木雅鲁藏布江特大桥为例,利用该模型评估其施工的风险情况,同时借助MATLAB软件绘制风险云图直观地反映风险程度,最后通过计算贴近度确定风险等级以确保评估结果的准确性。通过本文的研究为青藏高原地区桥梁施工风险评估提供了一种新思路,也为川藏铁路雅林段桥梁施工风险的预防和控制提供了参考。
In order to realize the dynamic assessment of the risk of bridge construction under the special environment of Sichuan-Tibet Railway,a bridge construction risk assessment model based on dynamic weight-2-D cloud model is proposed.Based on the risk factors of bridge construction in the general environment,considering the complex geological environment and climatic characteristics of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,a risk assessment index system for the Sichuan-Tibet railway bridge construction was constructed,and the weight was given by using the dynamic weight model based on the dynamic risk information of real-time feedback of bridge construction.A 2-D cloud model for risk assessment was constructed using risk probability and risk consequences as basic variables.Taking the ZangmuYarlungZangbo River Bridge as an example,the model was used to assess the risk of its construction,and the risk cloud diagram was drawn intuitively with the help of MATLAB software to reflect risks.Finally,the risk level was determined by calculating the closeness to ensure the accuracy of the evaluation results.The research in this article provides a new idea for the risk assessment of bridge construction in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and also provides a reference for the prevention and control of the bridgeconstruction risk in the Yalin section of the Sichuan-Tibet Railway.
作者
李海文
鲍学英
LI Haiwen;BAO Xueying(College of Civil Engineering,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China)
出处
《铁道科学与工程学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第6期1650-1660,共11页
Journal of Railway Science and Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51768034)。
关键词
川藏铁路
桥梁施工风险
动态权重模型
二维云模型
Sichuan-Tibet Railway
bridge construction risk
dynamic weight model
2-D cloud model
