摘要
复杂工程项目风险要素之间的传递过程在很大程度上导致了复杂工程项目风险管理的困境。首先采用文献综述与头脑风暴等方法全方位、全阶段识别复杂工程项目中的风险要素,然后运用专家调查法搭建风险要素之间的关联,进而构建复杂工程项目风险要素网络,结合网络可视化分析工具NetMiner重点分析风险网络的整体特征参数与局部特征参数,并以此为着眼点剖析复杂工程项目中的风险传递现象;在此基础上,借助厦门市城市地下综合管廊案例来验证该网络模型的有效性,识别出复杂工程项目中的关键起始风险要素与传导风险要素,揭示复杂网络风险传递的内在规律。据此提出复杂工程项目在制定风险防范策略时,应注重从起始因素的组织协调风险、政策风险和关键传导因素的施工质量风险、运营成本超支风险两方面有效采取遏制风险传递的措施。
The transfer process between risk elements of complex engineering projects largely leads to the dilemma of complex engineering project risk management.Firstly,this paper adopts the methods of literature review and brainstorming to identify risk elements in full range and all stage of complex engineering projects,builds associations between risk elements through specialist survey method,and then constructs a risk element network.Using the network visualization analysis tool of NetMiner,the paper focuses on the analysis of overall characteristic parameters and local characteristic parameters of the complex engineering project risk network,and then with this focus analyzes the risk transmission phenomena in complex engineering projects.On this basis,the feasibility of using the network model is validated by the case of Xiamen city underground comprehensive pipe gallery,through this model,the key initial risk elements and transmission risk elements in complex engineering projects are identified and the inherent law of complex network risk transmission is revealed.Accordingly,the paper proposes that when formulating the risk prevention strategy in complex engineering projects,effective measures to curb risk transmission should be taken,including paying attention to the initial factors of organization and coordination risk and policy risk,and the transmission factors of transmission quality risk and operating cost overrun risk.
作者
杨琳
周炬诺
Yang Lin;Zhou Junuo(School of Civil Engineering,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)
出处
《科技管理研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第16期209-217,共9页
Science and Technology Management Research
基金
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“复杂项目应对交叉延误:组织驱动机理、分布规律预测与同步策略研究”(71702136)。
关键词
复杂工程项目
风险传递机理
复杂网络
风险防范
complex engineering projects
risk transfer mechanism
complex network
risk prevention
