摘要
普遍认为公交车驾驶人历史违规行为是表征驾驶人风险程度的重要指标,但以往文献缺乏实证研究。为探究历史违规行为与事故责任之间的定量关系,以便更具靶向性地减少责任事故发生率,提高公交运营安全水平。基于某市461起涉及公交车的碰撞事故数据,以事故中公交驾驶人是否有责作为研究的因变量,从公交车驾驶人属性、事故特征、驾驶人前1年的历史违规行为记录、公交线路特征等方面选取16个自变量进行分析。利用随机参数模型展开研究,可以很好地解释数据中未观测到的异质性,并结合弹性分析定量分析各显著因素对公交车驾驶人发生有责事故的影响。结果表明,公交车驾驶人性别、驾驶经验、事故发生路程、事故发生地点、违章站点行为、收到投诉、发生过有责事故、发生过无责事故均会显著影响驾驶人发生有责事故的概率,其中回程、交叉口、发生过无责事故3个变量是服从正态分布的随机参数。研究结果为高风险驾驶人判别及运营安全管理提供了理论依据。
It is well-known that the bus driver's historical violation behavior is an important indicator of the driver's risk degree,but there is a lack of empirical research in previous literature.The objective of this paper is to explore the quantitative relationship between historical violation behavior and accident liability to reduce the incidence of liability accidents more targeted and improve the safety level of the public transport operation.Based on the data of 461 bus-involved accidents in a city,the bus driver's responsibility in the accidents was taken as the dependent variable,and 16 independent variables were selected for analysis from four aspects:bus driver characteristics,accident characteristics,driver's violation behavior in the previous year,bus line characteristics.A random parameter model was used to conduct the study.The random parameter model can process the panel data,explain the heterogeneity not observed in the data,not be limited by the interference of the assumption of“IIA”.Combining it with the elastic analysis,the influence of each significant factor on the occurrence of a bus driver's responsible accident was quantitatively analyzed.The results show that the bus driver's gender,driving experience,the distance of the accident,the location of the accident,bus driver's illegal stop behavior,bus driver's received complaints,bus driver's responsible accidents,and driver's non-responsible accidents are considered to be the significant factors leading to the driver's responsible accident.Variables such as summer,return trip,intersection,driver's illegal stop behavior,driver's received complaints significantly increase the probability of responsible accidents of bus drivers,while male,more than two years driving experience,driver's responsible accidents,and driver's non-responsible accidents are less likely to be responsible for accidents.The parameters of the return trip,intersection,and driver's non-responsible accidents are random parameters that are normally distributed.The results provide a theoretical basis for the identification of high-risk drivers and operation safety management.
作者
朱彤
秦丹
董傲然
魏雯
杜雨萌
ZHU Tong;QIN Dan;DONG Ao-ran;WEI Wen;DU Yu-meng(School of Transportation Engineering,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710064,China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第4期1566-1572,共7页
Journal of Safety and Environment
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFE0108000)。
关键词
安全社会工程
历史违规行为
公交车驾驶人
事故责任
随机参数模型
弹性分析
safety social engineering
historic violation behavior
bus driver
accident liability
random parameter model
elasticity analysis
