摘要
近年来,地方政府或有债务逐渐成为学者和社会关注的热点。为探究地方政府或有债务的规模及其对社会福利的影响,首先分析了地方融资平台、地方国有企业、地方不良贷款以及地方养老缺口四类地方政府或有债务的规模问题,而后实证检验了地方政府或有债务扩张与社会福利水平的关系。研究表明:(1)中国地方融资平台、地方国有企业、地方不良贷款和地方养老缺口形成的或有债务规模整体上呈上升趋势,在2019年达到了20.11万亿元,是当年地方财政收入的2倍;(2)地方政府或有债务与社会福利指数显著正相关,表明在现阶段地方政府或有债务扩张对地区社会福利依旧具有正外部性;(3)城镇化水平和城镇失业率在地方政府或有债务影响社会福利过程中扮演中介传导功能,表明地方政府或有债务是通过提高城镇化水平和降低城镇失业率来促进地区社会福利水平提升。研究结论不仅丰富了地方政府或有债务的现有文献,而且还能为政策制定者提供重要的经验数据支撑。
In recent years,the local government contingent debts has gradually become the hot spot of scholars and social concern.To explore the size of local government contingent debts and its impact on social welfare,the four types of local government contingent debts:local financing platform,local state-owned enterprises,local non-performing loans and local pension gap are first analyzed,and then the relationship of the local government contingent debts on social welfare level is test.The research shows that:(1)the scale of contingent debts formed by local financing platform,local state-owned enterprises,local non-performing loans and local pension gap is on the rise,which reaches 20.11 trillion yuan in 2019 and it is double of 2019 year local government financial revenue;(2)the local government contingent debts is positively correlated with the social welfare index,which indicates that the expansion of local government contingent debts still has a positive externality to the local social welfare at this stage;(3)urbanization level and urban unemployment rate act as intermediary transmission function in the process of local government contingent debts affecting social welfare,which shows that the local government contingent debts promotes the social welfare level by increasing the urbanization level and reducing the urban unemployment rate.The conclusions not only enrich the existing literature on local government contingent debts,but also provide important empirical data for policy makers.
作者
朱冠平
扈文秀
杨栎
ZHU Guan-ping;HU Wen-xiu;YANG Li(School of Finance,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China;School of Economics and Management,Xi’an University of Technology,Xi’an 710054,China)
出处
《统计与信息论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第10期118-128,共11页
Journal of Statistics and Information
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“地方政府或有债务的当量直接债务负担测算方法及风险预警”(71971169)
2020年陕西省哲学社会科学领军人才特支计划资助。
关键词
地方政府或有债务
社会福利
城镇化水平
城镇失业率
local government contingent debts
social welfare
urbanization level
urban unemploy-ment rate
