摘要
随着老年收入提高,老龄化背景下的老年消费潜力被积极预估,成为老龄经济新增长点;但老年实际消费并未呈现出完全如预期那样的积极态势。基于CHIP(1995、2003、2008、2014)和CHARLS(2018)数据,利用APC分类随机效应模型分解老年消费的年龄、时期和出生队列效应,以探寻社会变迁、生命序列事件等对消费的影响。队列消费优势集中于见证物质财富从无到有、从乏到丰的过渡型老人(1940—1950年出生队列);1950后出生队列亲历互联网发展、消费方式变革,但受独生子女政策以及健康风险规避的影响,消费水平低于传统且谨慎的1930年前出生队列。消费时期效应揭示了社会经济发展与老年消费之间的非对应关系,并阐明老年消费潜力与有效消费的差异;其根源在于老年所经历的社会变迁塑造了谨慎、保守、低欲等被动式消费态度,导致消费欲与消费心理一定程度滞后于消费力。降低老年支出风险预期、破除低消费欲状态,是促进新时期老年有效消费的重要路径。
Consumption potential has been positively estimated under the background of aging, but the actual consumption of the elderly is limited. Based on the data from CHIP 1995—2014 and CHARLS 2018, APC-Cross-Classified Random Effect Models was used to explore the effect of age, period and birth cohort on the elderly. The results found that the cohort pattern is significant and consumption advantage focuses on transitional elderly(1940—1950 s) witnessing the material wealth from nothing to something, from less to more. Although modern senior people(after 1950 s) have experienced the development of mobile internet and the change of consumption mode, they still have lower consumption level than that of traditional elderly(before 1930 s) due to their high expectations on health savings and risk aversion. The non corresponding relationship between the elderly consumption and the socioeconomic development reveals the difference between the consumption potential and the actual consumption of the aged. Social changes have shaped the cautious, conservative, and low-desire passive consumption attitudes of the elderly, leading to consumption desire lag behind consumption power to a certain extent. Reducing the risk expectations of elderly expenditure and breaking the state of low consumption desire are important ways to promote effective consumption of the elderly in the new era.
作者
吴敏
熊鹰
WU Min;XIONG Ying(School of Finance and Public Administration,Hubei University of Economics,Wuhan 430205,China;School of Public Administration,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China)
出处
《人口与经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第5期69-80,共12页
Population & Economics
基金
教育部人文社会科学一般项目“生命历程视角下中国老年消费行为研究”(18YJC840044)
国家社会科学基金青年项目“移动互联网背景下中国老年网络消费心理及行为机制研究”(20CRK011)。
