摘要
文章以1996—2019年我国586个建制市为研究对象,基于全国整体、不同类型城市的尺度,运用VAR模型及面板数据计量模型,探测公园绿地面积与城市人口的格兰杰因果关系及其作用态势。研究结果表明:1)从全国尺度看,二者由初期相互抑制转向"正向循环反馈"的良性互动,其中,城市人口对公园绿地面积的促进作用更明显。2)从城市尺度看,大、中城市和高暂住城市二者呈双向格兰杰因果关系;低暂住和低密度城市二者互动作用较弱,无显著因果关系。研究结果可揭示公园绿地面积与城市人口的互动影响及作用特征,为响应"公园城市"理念、制定公园绿地发展对策提供科学依据。
The paper takes 586 administrative cities in China from 1996 to 2019 to discuss the Granger causality between park green space area and urban population and its role situation on the national and city scale using the VAR model and the panel data measurement model.The results show that:1)On the national scale,the two elements have shifted from mutual inhibition at the initial stage to a benign interaction of"positive circular feedback".Among them,the role of urban population in promoting park green space area is more obvious.2)On the city scale,there is a two-way Granger causality between large cities,medium sized cities and the cities with high number of temporary population;the interaction between the cities with low number of temporary population and low-density cities is weak,and there is no significant causal relationship.The research can quantitatively reveal the interactive influence and function characteristics of park green space area and urban population,and provide a scientific basis for developing park green space development strategies in response to the concept of"park city".
作者
刘志强
宋佳
余慧
洪亘伟
Liu Zhiqiang;Song Jia;Yu Hui;Hong Genwei(College of Architecture and Lrban Planning,Suzhou Lniversity of Science and Technology,Suzhou 215011,Jiangsu,China)
出处
《中国城市林业》
2021年第5期22-27,共6页
Journal of Chinese Urban Forestry
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于空间计量分析的中国市域建成区绿地率空间分异的格局、演变及其机理研究”(51778389)
江苏高校“青蓝工程”、江苏省企业研究生工作站(苏州园林设计院有限公司)和苏州科技大学风景园林学学科建设项目。
关键词
公园绿地面积
城市人口
互动关系
VAR模型
面板数据计量模型
park green space area
urban population
interactive relationship
VAR model
panel data measurement model
