摘要
针对LTE-R通信系统运营安全风险评估中存在专家主观评判差异与冲突的问题,提出基于AHP与改进证据理论相结合的方法对LTE-R系统进行评估研究。利用模糊数学将专家模糊评语转化为定量隶属度表示,采用改进证据理论,基于皮尔逊系数改进克服证据间冲突的过程,通过加权分配证据可信度权值改善信息主观性,构造冲突因子修正证据融合过程,得到基本概率分配(BPA)函数矩阵。选取最大隶属度作为判断原则,评估相应系统的风险等级并与其他方法进行对比。结果表明:LTE-R系统实例分析评估结果为“可忽略风险”,置信度为83.41%,较折扣证据理论、灰色模糊综合安全评估法分别提升3.12%和16.95%,评估结果一致的前提下,改进的方法能改善专家评判冲突无法正确处理及融合问题,提供了高置信度风险等级值,为LTE-R系统的运营评估提供参考。
A method based on AHP and improved evidence theory is proposed to evaluate LTE-R system,thus solving the problem of differences and conflicts of subjective evaluation of experts in operational security risk assessment of LTE-R system.Fuzzy mathematics is used to transform fuzzy evaluation of experts into quantitative membership de⁃gree.Adopting the improved evidence theory,the process of overcoming conflicts between evidences can be improved based on Pearson coefficient.Through the weighted distribution of evidence credibility weights,the subjectivity of in⁃formation is improved.Conflict factors are constructed to modify the evidence fusion process,and the basic probabili⁃ty assignment(BPA)function matrix is finally obtained.The maximum membership degree is selected as a judgment principle to evaluate the risk level of the corresponding system,then compared with other methods.It can be summa⁃rized that the evaluation of the case analysis of the LTE-R system is"negligible risk"with a confidence level of 83.41%,which is 3.12%higher than the discount evidence theory,and 16.95%higher than the grey-fuzzy security assessment method.Under the premise of consistent evaluation results,the method can improve the problems of ex⁃pert evaluation conflicts that cannot be handled correctly and integration,and provide a high-confidence risk level val⁃ue,which provides a reference for the operation evaluation of the LTE-R system.
作者
高煜
武晓春
GAO Yu;WU Xiaochun(School of Automatic and Electrical Engineering,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China)
出处
《交通信息与安全》
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第5期19-26,共8页
Journal of Transport Information and Safety
基金
国家自然科学基金地区项目(61661027)资助。
关键词
交通安全
LTE-R通信系统
风险评估
皮尔逊证据理论
冲突分配
traffic safety
LTE-Rcommunication system
risk assessment
Pearson evidence theory
distribution of conflict
