摘要
为解决目前给排水管道存在的高价值样本缺乏与安全性评估不合理等问题,提出一种基于证据推理(evidential reasoning,ER)规则的管道安全性评估方法。首先通过构建给排水管道安全性评估指标体系,根据专家知识和监测信息分别确定指标的初始权重和可靠度;其次,利用基于规则的转化方法将监测信息转换至统一的置信框架下,进而构建了完整的安全性评估模型。同时,针对部分模型参数依赖专家给定,采用基于Fmincom的优化算法对参数进行优化,求解得到最优参数。最后对某型给排水管道实例进行评估,并通过对比实验说明所提出方法的有效性。
In order to solve the problems of difficulty in obtaining failure data and unreasonable safety assessment of the water supply and drainage,a safety assessment method based on the evidential reasoning(ER)rule was proposed.Firstly,the safety assessment indicators were established,and the indicator weights and reliabilities were calculated based on the expert knowledge and observation information respectively.Then,the observation data were transformed into a unified belied framework by using the rule-based input information conversion methods,and a complete safety assessment model was further constructed.Meanwhile,due to some model parameters depend on experts,the optimization algorithm based on the Fmincom was utilized to optimize the parameters and the optimal parameters were obtained.Finally,an example of safety assessment of a certain type water supply and drainage was conducted,and the effectiveness of the proposed method was verified through comparative experiment.
作者
韩晓霞
王杰
陈媛
李峙刚
HAN Xiao-xia;WANG Jie;CHEN Yuan;LI Zhi-gang(College of Combat Support, Rocket Force University of Engineering, Xi'an 710025, China;College of Missile Engineering, Rocket Force University of Engineering, Xi'an 710025, China)
出处
《科学技术与工程》
北大核心
2021年第32期13758-13764,共7页
Science Technology and Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金(61773388)。
关键词
给排水管道
证据推理规则
安全性评估
参数优化
water supply and drainage
evidential reasoning rule
safety assessment
parameter optimization
