摘要
在探讨2007—2018年北京市水资源供需平衡情况的基础上,利用WAS模型对1980—2018年北京市水资源进行动态模拟研究,分析区域自然-社会水循环转化模式,探讨社会水循环与自然水循环的转化机理。结果表明:2007—2018年北京市年均需水量(实部、虚部)呈上升趋势,年均蓝水供水量36.85亿m^(3),绿水供水量16.90亿m^(3);需水缺口呈显著增大趋势,年均水资源缺口为165.20亿m^(3);1982—2010年北京市多年平均及25%、50%和75%径流总量特征频率年模拟与实测误差率分别为7.0%、4.8%、1.2%和0,模型精度较高;各计算单元自然水循环下出流量由东北部向西南部递增,自然-社会水循环下实际出流量有所下降。
Based on the discussion of the balance between supply and demand of water resources in Beijing in recent 12 years,water allocation and simulation(WAS)model was used to conduct a dynamic simulation study of water resources in Beijing from 1980 to 2018.The transformation model of regional natural-social water cycle was analyzed,and the transformation mechanism of social water cycle and natural water cycle was discussed.The results show that from 2007 to 2018,the average annual water demand of both real and imaginary parts of Beijing rises.The average of annual blue water supply is 3.685 billion m^(3) and green water supply is 1.69 billion m^(3).The water demand gap shows a significant increase trend with a perennial average of 16.52 billion m^(3).The verification results of the established WAS model show that the simulated and measured error rates of the annual average and characteristic frequencies of 25%,50%and 75%runoff volume in Beijing from 1982 to 2010 are 7.0%,4.8%,1.2%and 0,indicating a high model accuracy.The flow rate of each calculation unit under the natural water cycle increases from northeast to southwest,while the actual flow rate decreases under the natural and social water cycle.
作者
曹永强
李玲慧
CAO Yongqiang;LI Linghui(School of Geographical Sciences,Liaoning Normal University,Da Lian 116029,China)
出处
《水利水电科技进展》
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第6期25-31,共7页
Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources
基金
国家自然基金面上项目(52079060)
清华大学-宁夏银川水联网联合开放基金(sklhse-2020-Iow04)
