摘要
目的探讨中国人群肝癌发病随年龄、时期、队列三因素变化趋势。方法基于2019年全球疾病负担研究(GBD 2019)数据库,以1990—2019年,20~79岁中国居民为研究对象,应用Stata 12.0分析,通过年龄-时期-队列模型估算中国肝癌发病率的年龄、时期和队列效应。结果 1990—2019年,中国男性和女性的肝癌标化发病率分别由1990年的34.76/10万和13.51/10万下降至2019年的15.22/10万和4.29/10万。APC模型分析显示,1990—2019年,我国肝癌发生风险的年龄效应为随年龄增加而增大[效应系数(男性):-2.357~0.809,P<0.05;效应系数(女性):-1.874~1.374,P<0.05]。时期效应为随着年份的增加先减低后增加[效应系数(男性)0.379~-0.353~0.002,P<0.05;效应系数(女性):0.553~-0.328~-0.208,P<0.05]。队列效应随出生队列的发展下降趋势显著[效应系数(男性)0.769~-0.717,P<0.05;效应系数(女性):0.660~-0.915,P<0.05]。结论 1990—2019年,中国人群肝癌发病率总体呈下降趋势,肝癌发病风险随着年龄的增长而增加,随着出生队列的增长而降低,随着时期的增加呈现先增后降的趋势,需加强在特殊人群,如老年人一级预防措施工作的开展,进一步降低我国未来肝癌发病率。
Objective To describe the trend of incidence of liver cancer among Chinese adults from 1990 to 2019 by using age-period-cohort(APC) model. Methods Data of liver cancer incidence among Chinese adults aged 20-79 years during 1990 and 2019 were retrieved from 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study(GBD2019) database and were analyzed using Stata12.0 software.The age, period and cohort effects on the incidence of liver cancer in China were assessed by using APC model. Results From 1990 to 2019, the standardized incidence of liver cancer among Chinese men and women dropped from 34.76/100 000 and 13.51/100 000 in 1990 to 15.22/100 000 and 4.29/100 000 in 2019.APC model analysis showed that, from 1990 to 2019, the age effect on the risk of liver cancer increased with age(effect coefficient was-2.357-0.809 in men and-1.874-1.374 in women, P<0.05).The period effect decreased then increased with years(effect coefficient was 0.379--0.353-0.002, in men and 0.553--0.328--0.208 in women, P<0.05).The cohort effect showed a significant downward trend with the successive birth cohort(effect coefficient was 0.769--0.717 in men and 0.660-0.915 in women, P<0.05). Conclusions From 1990 to 2019, the overall incidence of liver cancer among Chinese adults shows a downward trend.The risk of liver cancer increases with age, while decreases with the growth of birth cohort.As the period goes by, the risk of liver cancer climbs up and then slides down.Therefore,in order to further reduce the incidence of liver cancer in China,the implementation of primary preventive measures should be proposed especially for the elderly.
作者
陈悦
沈婉莹
陈磊
让蔚清
CHEN Yue;SHEN Wan-ying;CHEN Lei;RANG Wei-qing(School of Public Health,University of South,Hengyang,Hunan 421001,China)
出处
《中国预防医学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第5期329-335,共7页
Chinese Preventive Medicine
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(81673107)。
