摘要
为了优化电网公司投资增量配网园区的策略,提出了电网公司投资决策优化模型与投资股权优化模型。从规划风险、市场风险、管理风险、经济风险4个维度出发,通过多层次灰色关联面积分析法(multi-levelgreyarearelational analysis,MGARA)构建了电网公司投资风险评估模型,为电网公司优选园区进行投资提供支撑。为进一步确定电网公司的投资股权结构,通过人均用电量与人均发电量拟合电网公司的发展阶段测算其投资能力,优化电网公司投资增量配网园区的股权结构。为验证模型的有效性,选取某地区8个增量配网园区进行实证分析,结果表明电网公司投资增量配网园区的最优股权比例集中于[20%, 50%],能够充分发挥社会资本与电网公司的优势,促进社会资本与电网公司互利共赢。
In order to optimize the strategy of power grid companies investing in incremental distribution network parks,this paper proposes a power grid company investment decision optimization model and an investment equity optimization model. Considering from the four dimensions of planning risks,market risks, management risks, and economic risks, the grid company investment risk assessment model is constructed through the Multi-Level Grey Area Relational Analysis(MGARA) to support the company’s investment in the selected parks. In order to further determine the investment equity structure of the grid company, the investment capacity of the grid company is measured by fitting the per capita electricity consumption and per capita power generation to the development stage of the grid company, optimizing the equity structure of the grid company’s investment in the incremental distribution network park. In order to verify the effectiveness of the model, eight incremental distribution network parks in a certain area are selected for the empirical analysis. The empirical results show that when the optimal equity ratio of grid companies investing in incremental distribution network parks is concentrated in [20%, 50%], the advantages of social capital and the power grid companies will be given full play so as to promote their mutual benefits and win-win results.
作者
谭彩霞
耿世平
谭忠富
王晶
周静涵
李韩房
TAN Caixia;GENG Shiping;TAN Zhongfu;WANG Jing;ZHOU Jinghan;LI Hanfang(School of Economic and Management,North China Electric Power University,Changping District,Beijing 102206,China;School of Economic and Management,Yan’an University,Yan’an 716000,Shaanxi Province,China)
出处
《电网技术》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第11期4375-4386,共12页
Power System Technology
基金
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(18JZD032)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2019QN006)。
