摘要
为提高煤矿煤与瓦斯突出危险性预测的准确性,减少误报,提出采用加权灰靶决策方法对煤矿煤与瓦斯突出危险性进行预测。首先,对预测指标进行灰色关联分析;然后,通过构造一致效果测度函数,建立了多目标加权灰靶决策评估模型;最后,通过对豫西某煤矿的钻屑瓦斯解吸指标、钻屑量、瓦斯放散初速度、瓦斯含量、瓦斯涌出量的方差和自相关系数以及基于瓦斯涌出反演的瓦斯压力等预测指标的分析,运用建立的模型对该煤矿煤与瓦斯突出危险性预测效果进行了验证。验证结果表明:采用加权灰靶决策方法对该煤矿煤与瓦斯突出危险性预测8次,该煤矿实际具有煤与瓦斯突出危险性7次,预测准确率高达87.50%,无漏报,相对于单一预测指标如瓦斯涌出量的方差和自相关系数、基于瓦斯涌出反演的瓦斯压力的预测方法,加权灰靶决策方法对该煤矿煤与瓦斯突出危险性预测的准确性提高了9.72%、23.87%。
In order to improve the accuracy of risk prediction of coal and gas outburst and reduce false positives in coal mine,this paper proposes a weighted gray target decision method.First,the paper carries out the grey correlation analysis of the forecasting indicators.Then,by constructing a consistent effect mea-surement function,the paper establishes a multi-objective weighted grey target decision evaluation model.Finally,the paper verifies the model in a mine in western Henan,through predicting and analyzing the prediction indexes such as the gas desorption index,the number of cuttings,the initial gas emission velocity,the gas content,the variance and autocorrelation coefficient of the gas emission and the inversion based on gas emission.The verification results show that of the 8-time risk preditions of coal and gas outburst by the weighted gray target decision method,7-time preditions are accurate with the accuracy rate as high as 87.5%,and there is no omission.Compared with the prediction method of a single index,such as the va-riance and autocorrelation coefficient of the gas emission and gas pressure based on the gas emission inversion,the prediction accuracy of the weighted gray target decision method is improved by 9.72%and 23.87%respectively.
作者
陈亮
刘琦
CHEN Liang;LIU Qi(School of Energy&Environment Engineering,Zhongyuan University of Technology,Zhengzhou 450007,China)
出处
《安全与环境工程》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第6期61-66,共6页
Safety and Environmental Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51804356)
河南省重点研发与推广专项项目(212102310597)
河南省高等学校重点科研项目(21A440016)
中原工学院青年骨干教师资助计划项目(2020XQG04)
中原工学院自主创新应用研究项目(K2020YY010、K2020QN014)
中国职业安全健康协会创新创业项目(CXCY-2021-16)。
关键词
煤矿
煤与瓦斯突出危险预测
加权灰靶决策方法
coal mine
risk prediction of coal and gas outburst
weighted gray target decision method
