摘要
我国水电建设正处于流域梯级开发的高峰期,目前已建成和规划了一系列梯级水库群.因流域内各个梯级的库区地质条件、风险设计标准、运行老化程度不同,且不同梯级之间相互影响,使得梯级水库群存在的风险高于单一水库,开展流域梯级水库群风险分析,关系到工程安全和社会公共安全.本文在阐述我国流域梯级开发建设和库群风险特点基础上,对失事风险概率、风险损失评估、风险标准、梯级连溃风险、梯级库群风险处置等方面的研究进展进行了综述,提出流域系统下多源复合风险的组合研究、特定风险组合下的梯级连溃模式和系统失效概率研究、库群联合调度及风险处置措施研究、水库群安全标准的制定等方面将是未来重点研究方向,以期为流域梯级水库的滚动开发、安全运行管理以及风险应急处置提供有价值参考.
Hydropower construction in China is at the peak concerning the development of cascade reservoirs in river basins.A series of cascade reservoirs have been planned and constructed.However,due to different geological conditions,risk design standards,operationalaging degrees of each cascade in the river basin,and the interaction among different cascades,the risks associated with cascade reservoirs are higher than in a single reservoir.Risk analysis of cascade reservoirs in a river basin is related to engineering safety and social public safety.Based on descriptions of the development,construction status,and risk characteristics of cascade reservoirs in China’s river basins,this paper summarizes the research progress in the risk analysis of cascade reservoirs such as risk/loss assessment,the probability risk of dam failure,risk standards,cascade failure risk,and the overall risk management of cascade reservoirs.The paper posits that the combination of multisource and compound risks in a watershed system,cascade failure mode,system failure probability under specific risk combinations,the joint operation of reservoirs and risk disposal measures,and the formulation of safety standards for cascade reservoirs will be the key research directions in the future.The research results are expected to provide valuable reference for the rolling development,safe operations management,and risk emergency disposal of cascade reservoirs in river basins.
作者
李炎隆
王胜乐
王琳
杜效鹄
周兴波
LI YanLong;WANG ShengLe;WANG Lin;DU XiaoHu;ZHOU XingBo(State Key Laboratory of Eco-Hydraulics in Northwest Arid Region,Xi’an University of Technology,Xi’an 710048,China;China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute,Beijing 100120,China)
出处
《中国科学：技术科学》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第11期1362-1381,共20页
Scientia Sinica(Technologica)
基金
国家自然科学基金优秀青年科学基金项目(批准号:51722907)
陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目(编号:2019JQ-577)资助。
关键词
梯级水库群
风险分析
连锁溃坝
风险处置
cascade reservoirs
risk analysis
dam break in cascade
risk response
