摘要
收入是影响居民旅游消费意愿与规模的主要因素。在当前经济下行压力加大与收入体制改革深化的背景下,收入对居民旅游消费的作用机理会更加复杂。在充分考虑与控制收入不确定性因素的基础上,重新审视收入与旅游消费的关系甚为必要。文章以城镇居民为研究对象,以持久收入假说与预防性储蓄理论为基础,建立包含持久收入、收入不确定性与居民旅游消费的数理分析框架,基于2012年、2016年与2018年3期中国家庭追踪调查的非平衡面板数据,借助Heckman两阶段模型,实证分析了收入及收入不确定性因素对城镇居民旅游消费的影响状况。研究发现:城镇居民持久收入对旅游消费具有显著的正向推动作用,收入不确定性则产生明显的抑制作用。异质性研究表明,持久收入对低收入群体消费决策的促进作用更高,对高收入群体消费规模的扩张作用则更强。而低收入与低旅游消费群体对收入不确定性相对更敏感。文章既利用持久收入理论及预防性储蓄理论对收入与旅游消费的关系进行重新思考,同时也提出了促进持久收入的稳定、持续及多元化增长,稳定居民收入预期,尤其是改善低收入群体的家庭经济条件与保障该群体的旅游消费权利是扩大城镇居民旅游消费持续增长的立足点。
Income is the main influencing factor with respect to the willingness and scale of tourism consumption.Against a background of increasing economic downturn and reform efforts regarding income in China,the relationship between income and tourism consumption is becoming more complex.In light of uncertainty concerning the impact of income on tourism consumption,it is necessary to undertake a thorough academic examination of the related factors.The present study applied the theory of permanent income and that of precautionary savings;it investigated urban residents and employed a mathematical analysis framework to determine permanent income,income uncertainty,and residents’tourism consumption.We examined unbalanced panel data for family panel studies in China in 2012,2016,and 2018;using Heckman’s two-stage model,we empirically analyzed the impact of income and income uncertainty factors on the urban residents’tourism consumption.We obtained the following results.The permanent income of urban residents had a significant positive role in promoting tourism consumption;it also exerted a stronger positive effect than temporary income;income uncertainty had a significant inhibitory effect on tourism consumption.Our main conclusions were still valid after we conducted a robustness test.With respect to control variables,the per capita family assets,the proportion of family members receiving medical insurance,and the education level and marital status of the head of the household had a significant positive impact on tourism consumption.The number of family members had a significant negative impact on tourism consumption;the age of the head of the household displayed a significant inverted U-curve relationship with tourism consumption.Tourism consumption among urban residents in eastern parts of China was significantly higher than in central and western regions of the country.We also found that variations in income and uncertainty related to income factors had a heterogeneous impact on tourism consumption among urban residents.On the one hand,permanent income and uncertainty related to income had a heterogeneous effects with respect to different levels of income.In the low-income group,permanent income had a higher promoting effect on decision making with respect to tourism consumption;however,in the high-income group,permanent income had a stronger effect on the expansion of tourism consumption.In the low-income group,income uncertainty had the greatest negative effect on tourism consumption;however,income uncertainty had less of a negative effect with the high-income group.On the other hand,permanent income and income uncertain variables also had significant heterogeneous effects with respect to different levels of tourism consumption.In conjunction with the continuous growth in tourism consumption,the positive effect of permanent income showed a gradually weakening trend.Regarding income uncertainty,the sensitivity of the group having low tourism consumption was higher than that of the group with high tourism consumption.As noted,this study applied the theories of permanent income and precautionary savings to investigate the relationship between income and tourism consumption.This investigation found that the main factor behind sustainable growth of tourism consumption among urban residents was promoting stable,sustainable,and diversified growth of permanent income,stabilizing residents’income expectations(especially improving the economic status of low-income groups),and guaranteeing rights for tourism consumption.
作者
王明康
刘彦平
WANG Mingkang;LIU Yanping(College of Culture and Tourism,University of Jinan,Jinan 250002,China;National Academy of Economic Strategy,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100006,China)
出处
《旅游学刊》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第11期106-121,共16页
Tourism Tribune
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“创业、创新生态系统构建与城市‘大众创业、万众创新’战略支持体系研究”(16BGL209)资助。
