摘要
本文基于后凯恩斯主义的Bhaduri-Marglin模型和内生性技术进步理论,利用我国1978—2017年的省级面板数据,估计了提高平均真实工资率对我国总需求和劳动生产率增长的潜在影响。通过引入真实工资影响的非线性特征、分别核算东部与内陆地区的总需求和劳动生产率区制、使用更加全面稳健的估计方法等,对现有相关研究做出改进,并得出如下结论:当前我国的总需求和劳动生产率均处于"工资拉动增长"的区制。提高真实工资增长率,不仅会通过"马克思-希克斯"效应驱使厂商提高劳动生产率,还会通过提高劳动收入份额促进总需求增长,而后者又通过"卡尔多-凡登"效应进一步促进劳动生产率增长。这种效应在内陆地区比在东部地区更加明显。多措并举地提高真实工资增速,提高劳动报酬占初次分配的比重,有利于实现内生需求创造与供给效率提升的协同,助力"形成需求牵引供给、供给创造需求的更高水平动态平衡"。
Based on the Post-Keynesian Bhaduri-Marglin model incorporating endogenous technical change,and utilizing1978-2017 provincial panel data of China,this paper estimates the potential effect of raising real wage rates on China’s growth in aggregate demand and labor productivity.This paper makes improvements to the existed empirical studies by incorporating non-linear effects of rising real wages on aggregate demand and labor productivity,separately calculating the total demand and labor productivity zoning system in the eastern and inland regions,and using more comprehensive and robust estimation methods,etc.It finds that at present,China’s growth in aggregate demand and labor productivity are in the"wage-led"regime.Raising growth rate of real wages will not only stimulate productivity growth via the"Marx-Hicks"effect,but also promote growth of aggregate demand,which will further enhance productivity growth via the"Kaldor-Verdoon"effect.This effect is more pronounced in inland areas than in eastern areas.Promoting higher real wage growth by multiple institutional efforts,and hence elevating the labor income share will facilitate the synergy between endogenous demand creation and supply side improvements,and hence form"a higher level of dynamic balance in which demand drives supply and supply creates demand".
出处
《经济学家》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第12期107-116,共10页
Economist
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目“非主流宏观动态学视角的收入分配、内生需求与供给侧协同研究”(16CJL036)。
关键词
真实工资
劳动收入份额
总需求
劳动生产率
经济增长
Real Wages
Labor Income Share
Aggregate Demand
Labor Productivity
Economic Growth
