摘要
根据腐烂茎线虫已知分布区域及相关环境变量数据,采用MaxEnt和ArcGIS物种适生性分析软件,对当前和未来环境条件下腐烂茎线虫在山西省的适生区域进行预测.结果表明:当前气候条件下,腐烂茎线虫的适生区面积占山西总面积的89.2%,其中,高度、中度和低度适生区的面积分别占全省总面积的34.3%、32.1%和22.8%,高度适生区包括9个市82个县(市、区);在两种代表性浓度路径(RCP)2.6和8.5预测下,未来2050和2070年腐烂茎线虫总适生区的面积占比均有所增加,其中,在RCP2.6气候情景下,2050和2070年高度适生区面积占比分别增加11.4%和15.7%,而在RCP8.5气候情景下,分别增加46.6%和59.2%.MaxEnt模型的预测曲线下面积的均值为0.909,说明预测结果准确度较高.年均温、最冷季平均温、最暖季降雨量、温度季节性变化方差和最冷季降雨量是腐烂茎线虫在山西扩散的主要影响因子,相关部门应加强对其潜在适生区的监测.
To better prevent and control Ditylenchus destructor,a pest with highest level of risk in China,current and future adaptive regions of D.destructor in Shanxi Province were integrated and predicted in response to different environmental variables by maximum entropy model(MaxEnt)and ArcGIS.The results showed that the total areas of potential adaptive regions for D.destructor occupied 89.2%of the total land in Shanxi Province under current climatic conditions,with the highly,moderately and slightly adaptive regions accounting for 34.3%,32.1%and 22.8%of the total,respectively.The highly adaptive regions covered 9 cities and 82 counties.In the future climate scenarios with representative concentration pathway(RCP)being 2.6 and 8.5,the total areas of potential adaptive regions for D.destructor would expand.Under RCP2.6,the total areas of highly adaptive regions would be increased by 11.4%and 15.7%in 2050 and 2070,respectively;when RCP reached 8.5,the highly adaptive regions would be increased by 46.6%and 59.2%in 2050 and 2070,respectively.The averages of area under curve reached 0.909 by maximum entropy model,indicating high prediction accuracy of D.destructor's spreading in Shanxi.The main environmental variables affecting D.destructor spread potential included annual mean temperature,mean temperature of coldest season,precipitation of warmest season,variance of seasonal temperature and precipitation of coldest season.Therefore,it is recommended that the quarantine and supervision of D.destructor should be strengthened.
作者
杨鹄溶
李恩
徐玉梅
赵增旗
YANG Gurong;LI En;XU Yumei;ZHAO Zengqi(College of Plant Protection,Shanxi Agricultural University,Taigu,Shanxi 030801,China;Mannaaki Whenua-Landcare Research,Auckland 1142,New Zealand)
出处
《福建农林大学学报（自然科学版）》
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第1期39-45,共7页
Journal of Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University:Natural Science Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金(31801958)
山西省回国留学人员项目(HGKY2019043)
山西省高等学校优秀成果培育项目(2019KJ021)
山西省大学生创新创业项目(18-019)
山西省中央引导地方科技发展资金项目(YDZJSX2021A033).
关键词
腐烂茎线虫
MaxEnt模型
适生区
Ditylenchus destructor
MaxEnt model
potential distribution
