摘要
掌握铁路冷链物流运量发展趋势,是实现铁路冷链物流市场化经营,推动铁路冷链物流向现代物流转型,制定铁路冷链运输组织及开行方案的前提。为合理预测铁路冷链运量,在阐述我国铁路冷链运量现状及影响因素的基础上,将灰色系统预测法与冷链运输产运系数相结合,构建基于灰色预测法的铁路冷链运量预测模型,结合历年主要生鲜农产品产量、铁路历史运量及铁路货票数据,对主要区段间铁路冷链运量进行预测。根据模型求解结果,能够反映铁路冷链物流运量及变化趋势,为铁路冷链物流业务发展决策提供依据。
Grasping the development trend of railway cold-chain logistics is the premise of realizing its market-oriented operation, promoting the transformation to modern logistics, and formulating its organization and operation plan. To reasonably predict the railway cold-chain transport volume, this paper first expounded on the current situation and influencing factors of railway cold-chain transport in China. On this basis, this paper then combined the transport coefficient of cold-chain transport with the grey system prediction method to construct a prediction model for the railway cold-chain transport volume. Utilizing the output data of main fresh agricultural products, historical railway transport volume, and ticket data of railway freight transport over the years, we predicted the railway cold-chain transport volume between main sections by this model. The results show that the solutions of the model can reflect the volume and trend of railway cold-chain logistics, which provides a basis for the development decision of railway cold-chain logistics business.
作者
王言
宫薇薇
丁小东
WANG Yan;GONG Weiwei;DING Xiaodong(Transportation&Economics Research Institute,China Academy of Railway Sciences Corporation Limited,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《铁道货运》
2021年第12期73-79,共7页
Railway Freight Transport
基金
中国国家铁路集团有限公司科技研究开发计划课题(K2019J011)
中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司科研项目(2020YJ202)。
关键词
铁路冷链物流
灰色预测法
产运系数
运量预测
OD运量测算
Railway Cold-Chain Logistics
Grey Prediction Model
Transport Coefficient
Transport Volume Forecast
OD Transport Volume Calculation
