摘要
文章以售租比为切入点,利用28个大中城市行政区2018年1月到2020年12月36个月售租比的月度数据,运用多期DID,考察疫情对售租比的多重影响,以此反映疫情对房地产市场的冲击。研究发现:(1)疫情对于售租比总体带来正向的冲击。(2)城市售租比波动存在异质性。具体为一线和新一线城市售租比受到疫情的冲击比二线城市小;医疗资源和人口禀赋越充裕的城市,售租比受到疫情冲击所带来的影响也并不显著;旅游城市售租比受到疫情影响较大。(3)在机制分析中,疫情所导致的售租比波动是由于疫情左右人们的心理,影响人们对未来的预期。文章从售租比波动的视角,为预防未来重大事件的发生对房地产行业的影响,稳定居民预期提供初步的经验证据。
This paper takes the price-to-rent ratio as the entry point,uses the monthly data of the price-to-rent ratio for 36 months from January 2018 to December 2020 in 28 large and medium-sized urban administrative regions,and uses multi-period DID to investigate the multiple impacts of the epidemic on the price-to-rent ratio,so as to reflect the impact of the epidemic on the real estate market.It finds that:(1)The epidemic has a positive impact on the overall price-to-rent ratio.(2)Heterogeneity exists in the fluctuation of urban price-to-rent ratio.To be specific,the price-to-rent ratio of first-tier and new first-tier cities is less affected by the epidemic than second-tier cities.For cities with more abundant medical resources and population endowment,the impact of the epidemic on the price-to-rent ratio is not significant;the price-to-rent ratio of tourist cities has been greatly affected by the epidemic.(3)In terms of mechanism analysis,the fluctuation of price-to-rent ratio caused by the epidemic is due to the influence of the epidemic on people’s psychology and their future expectations.From the perspective of price-to-rent ratio fluctuation,this paper provides preliminary empirical evidence to prevent the impact of future major events on the real estate industry and stabilize residents’expectations.
作者
余子晴
Yu Ziqing(School of Finance,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China)
出处
《中南财经政法大学研究生论丛》
2021年第6期53-64,共12页
Journal of the Postgraduates of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law
关键词
疫情
售租比
多期DID
心理预期
COVID-19
Sell-rent-ratio
Time-varying DID
Expectations
