摘要
为有效提升企业投资装配式建筑部件生产基地项目的决策质量,基于案例推理(CBR)技术和数据包络分析(DEA)方法提出了一种项目投资决策模型。首先,通过文献研究进行项目特征属性和经济参数指标的选取,以此为依据对案例进行表示,并构建案例库;进而,提出项目相似度计算规则,用于相似案例检索;然后,采用相似度加权法进行备选项目经济参数估算;最后,以投资备选项目为评价对象运用数据包络分析方法对其经济效益进行评价,根据评价结果给出决策建议。运用该模型对某典型项目进行实证分析,得出该项目相对经济效益评价结果为θ;=0.97<1,为非DEA有效,建议放弃投资,计算结果与实际情况基本符合,验证了模型的有效性。
In order to improve the decision-making quality of the project investment in the production base of prefabricated building components, a project investment decision-making model based on case-based reasoning(CBR) and data envelopment analysis(DEA) was proposed. Firstly, the feature attributes and economic parameters of the project were extracted through literature research to represent the case, and the case database was constructed. Then the project similarity calculation rules are put forward to retrieve similar cases. Then the similarity weighting method is used to estimate the economic parameters of alternative projects. Finally, the economic benefits of alternative investment projects are evaluated by using the data envelopment analysis method, and the decision-making suggestions are given according to the evaluation results. The model is used to analyze a typical project, and the result of relative economic benefit evaluation of the project is θ;=0.97<1 which means DEA ineffective, so it is suggested to give up the investment. The results show that the model has good reliability and high applicability.
作者
陈伟
邓诗颖
王伟超
CHEN Wei;DENG Shiying;WANG Weichao(School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China;China Construction Technology Wuhan Co Ltd,Wuhan 430415,China)
出处
《土木工程与管理学报》
2022年第1期55-60,67,共7页
Journal of Civil Engineering and Management
关键词
装配式建筑
项目投资决策
CBR
DEA
经济效益
prefabricated building
project investment decision
CBR
DEA
economic benefit
