摘要
人口红利对我国经济发展贡献巨大,但近年来劳动力的减少持续引发担忧。通过对以往文献的梳理探讨了人口红利和人口质量红利的关系,并利用第七次全国人口普查数据,结合以往历次人口普查、《中国统计年鉴》以及《中国城市统计年鉴》数据对两者人口基础和经济贡献的最新情况进行了研究。总体而言,我国人口红利正从传统人口红利向人口质量红利转变。一方面,人口红利缓慢式微,表现为:我国劳动年龄人口规模和比重持续下降,老龄化和高龄化进一步加速,人口总抚养比由减转增,人口数量红利对经济增长的贡献率持续走低;另一方面,人口质量红利逐渐显现,表现为:我国人口受教育状况大幅提升,人口健康水平明显改善,人口质量红利替代人口数量红利对经济发展起到了更大的积极作用。应通过发展教育、培养和引进人才以及推进积极老龄化,进一步挖掘人口质量红利。
Demographic dividend has contributed huge for China’s economic development,but the reduction in labor in recent years has raised concerns.This paper explores the relationship between demographic dividend and education and health dividend through the analysis of previous literature.Using the latest seventh national census data,combined with data from previous population census,China Statistical Yearbook and China City Statistical Yearbook,we studied the latest situation of the two.Overall,China’s demographic dividend is evolving from the traditional demographic dividend to education and health dividend.On the one hand,demographic dividend tends to disappear,as:China’s labor population and proportion continue to decline,aging further accelerated,and dependency ratio of population rebound.And demographic dividend’s contribution to economic growth is declining.On the other hand,education and health dividend has gradually appeared,as:education of China’s population are greatly improved,and the health level of the population is significantly heightened.Thus,education and health dividend has played a greater positive role in economic development.According to this,we believe that we should develop all kinds of education at all levels,cultivate and introduce high-level talents,and further promote active-aging.
作者
黄凡
段成荣
HUANG Fan;DUAN Cheng-rong(Population Development Studies Center,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)
出处
《人口与发展》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第1期117-126,共10页
Population and Development
基金
教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目“中国少数民族人口与边疆发展研究”(18JJD840001)。
关键词
人口红利
人口质量红利
教育
健康
Demographic Dividend
Education and Health Dividend
Education
Health
