摘要
2030年和2060年分别实现碳达峰和碳中和是我国生态文明建设的内在要求。畜牧业是我国主要的碳排放源,如何在保障畜禽产品持续稳定供应的同时减少碳排放,事关居民美好生活所需,也事关"双碳"目标的实现。本文以奶牛产业为例,基于全产业链视角,运用生命周期法测算2008—2020年奶业碳排放,并设计优质饲草日粮减排情景。研究发现,在奶牛日粮中以3公斤、6公斤和9公斤苜蓿干草代替部分精料饲喂低、中、高产奶牛,可减少27%单位原奶碳排放;以人均牛奶消费量翻番、国内自给率保持在70%以上为目标,在优质饲草模式下,奶业可在2036—2037年碳达峰,较当前模式达峰时间提前11年,峰值减少25.5%,此外,该模式下,草地碳汇可有效中和碳排放。优化饲草种植结构、发展优质饲草畜牧业是"双碳"目标下奶业绿色发展的必由之路。
Achieving carbon dioxide emissions peaking before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060(“the 3060 target”),is the inherent requirement of China’s ecological civilization construction. Animal husbandry is the main source of carbon emissions in China. How to reduce carbon emissions while ensuring the sustainable and stable supply of livestock and poultry products is related to the needs of residents for a better life and the realization of “the 3060 targets”. Taking the dairy industry as an example, based on the perspective of the whole industry chain, this paper calculates the carbon emission of dairy industry from 2008 to 2020 by using the life cycle method,and designs the emission reduction scenarios of high-quality forage diets. It is found that (1) feeding low,medium and high-yield cows with 3 kg,6 kg and 9 kg alfalfa hay instead of some concentrate in dairy cattle diet could reduce the carbon emission per unit of raw milk by 27.0%;(2) With the goal of doubling the per capita milk consumption and maintaining the domestic self-sufficiency rate at more than 70%,the dairy industry could reach its peak in carbon dioxide emissions in 2036-2037,which is 11 years earlier and 25.5% lower than current pattern. In addition,the grassland carbon sink can effectively neutralize the carbon emission. Optimizing forage planting structure and developing high-quality forage animal husbandry are the only way for the green development of dairy industry under “the 3060 targets”.
作者
励汀郁
熊慧
王明利
LI Tingyu;XIONG Hui;WANG Mingli
出处
《农业经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第2期17-29,共13页
Issues in Agricultural Economy
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目(编号:72033009)
中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(编号:ASTIP-IAED-2020-01)
国家现代农业产业技术体系建设专项资金(编号:CARS-34-22)。
关键词
奶牛产业
碳排放
碳达峰
生命周期评价法
Dairy industry
Carbon emissions
Carbon dioxide emissions peaking
LCA
