摘要
航空运输业在整个交通运输业中所占比重持续增加,空中交通流量与日俱增,尾流是制约航空安全的重要因素,其造成的安全问题不容小觑。基于此,对近几年国内外因飞机遭遇尾流而造成的事故及事故原因进行汇总分析后,确定导致尾流事故发生的要素,构建尾流事故的贝叶斯网络模型(BN),辨析事故发生路径,采用专家打分-模糊集理论的方法确定各基本事件先验概率及条件概率,应用Netica仿真软件验证各基本事件后验概率,进行基本事件三种重要度检验计算,确定对尾流事故的发生影响最大的风险要素、系统薄弱环节,为管理者安全政策的制定提供理论参考。
The proportion of the air transport industry in the entire transportation industry continues to increase and the flow of air traffic is increasing day by day.The wake vortex of the aircraft is an important factor restricting aviation safety.In the meantime,the safety problems caused by it should not be underestimated.This paper uses mathematical statistics to summarize and analyze the accidents caused by aircraft encountering wake turbulence in recent years at home and abroad.Bayesian network model(BN)of wake accidents is constructed to determine the factors causing wake accidents and discriminate the accident paths.The prior probability and conditional probability of each basic event are determined based on the expert scoring-fuzzy set theory.The posterior probability of each basicevent is verified by Netica simulation software,and then three basic event importance are tested and calculated.This paper determines the risk factors and system weaknesses that have the greatest influence on wake vortex accidents in order to identify the external risk factors that lead to wake vortex encountering events.And then a theoretical reference for the formulation of safety policies can be provided for managers.
作者
郑思睿
潘卫军
江艳军
王昊
ZHENG Sirui;PAN Weijun;JIANG Yanjun;WANG Hao(CAAC North China Regional Administration,Beijing 100020;Civil Aviation Flight University of China,Guanghan 618300)
出处
《舰船电子工程》
2022年第3期135-141,共7页
Ship Electronic Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目(编号:U1733203)
民航安全能力建设SA项目(编号:TM2018-9-1/3,TM2019-16-1/3)资助。
