摘要
该研究收集到紫果云杉的108处数字化标本信息及野外调查采集分布点数据,筛选出13个环境变量,利用CMIP6提供的未来2个时期3种气候情景模式数据,采用MaxEnt模型和GIS技术分析不同时期分布区变化,绘制影响紫果云杉生长的主要环境因子的响应曲线,定量描述适宜紫果云杉生长、生存的环境条件。结果表明:(1)MaxEnt模型对紫果云杉分布区的预测结果具有很高的可信度,AUC值均高于0.95;当前分布主要集中在青藏高原东缘地区的四川西北部、甘肃南部、青海东南部、西藏东部等地。(2)紫果云杉的最适生区面积为40937 km^(2),集中分布于四川西北部、甘肃西南部;较适生区分布面积约167344 km^(2),四川、甘肃、青海、西藏地区分布较广;低适生区分布范围最广,面积为567257 km^(2),占分布区面积的73%以上。(3)Jackknife检验和环境因子响应曲线表明,海拔(贡献率为44.0%)和降水(累计贡献率为45.6%,其中年平均降水量贡献率为32.1%)对紫果云杉的分布影响起主导作用,其次是温度(累计贡献率为10.3%,其中最冷季度平均温度贡献率为5%),适宜紫果云杉生长的海拔、年降水量和最冷季平均温度的阈值分别为2600~4200 m、590~820 mm和-9.8~-1.4℃,峰值分别为3600 m、712 mm和-7℃。(4)未来紫果云杉的分布范围主要向西、北方向延伸,西藏南部小部分生境丢失,总体呈现适宜生境面积增加的趋势,2018-2100年局部发展(ssp370)模式下适生区面积达到最大,为1091404 km^(2)。
This study obtained 108 sampling sites through specimens and field investigation of Picea purpurea,and screened 13 environmental variables and 3 climate scenario models in the future provided by CMIP6 for analyzing the changes of P.purpurea's distributions under different climate conditions based on MaxEnt model and GIS.Meanwhile the response curves of main environmental variables affecting the growth of P.purpurea were obtained and the environmental conditions suitable for the P.purpurea's survival were described quantitatively.The results showed that:(1)MaxEnt model for predicting the distributions had high credibility because of high AUC values of both training data and test data.The distributions of P.purpurea are mainly concentrated in the eastern edge of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,including northwestern Sichuan,southern Gansu,southeastern Qinghai and eastern Tibet.(2)It indicated that high distributions were mainly located in the northwestern Sichuan,southwestern Gansu,which covered an area with 40937 km^(2).Medium distributions covered an area of 167344 km^(2),extending from high distributions.Low distributions had most widespread with an area of 567257 km^(2),occupying more than 73%of distributions.(3)The analysis of Jackknife test and response curves showed that main factors influence on distributions of P.purpurea were altitude(percent contribution was 44%)and precipitation(the accumulative contribution rate was 45.6%,while percent contribution of annual precipitation was 32.1%)firstly,then the temperature(the accumulative contribution rate was 10.3%,while percent contribution of mean temperature of coldest quarter was 5%).Meanwhile,response curves of main environmental variables had significant peaks.The suitable regions for P.purpurea's growth were those where altitude,annual precipitation,mean temperature of coldest quarter were around 2600-4200 m,590-820 mm,-9.8--1.4℃,respectively,while the most suitable values were 3600 m,712 mm,-7℃,respectively.(4)In the future,the distributions of P.purpurea extended to west and north compared with contemporary distributions and a few amount of area lost in southern Tibet.Overall,the area of suitable habitat showed a growing tendency,and it covered the largest distributions under the condition of ssp370 in 2081-2100,with an area of 1091404 km^(2).
作者
刘婷
曹家豪
齐瑞
李波
高本强
LIU Ting;CAO Jiahao;QI Rui;LI Bo;GAO Benqiang(Institute of Forestry Science of Bailongjiang in Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730070, China;2Gansu Bailongjiang National Forest Ecosystem Research Station, Zhouqu Gansu 746300, China;3School of Life Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730070, China)
出处
《西北植物学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第3期481-491,共11页
Acta Botanica Boreali-Occidentalia Sinica
基金
甘肃省林业科技创新与国际合作项目(KJCX202001)。
