摘要
传统的滚动轴承寿命预测都需要进行全寿命实验,并且需要数学或物理模型处理大量的实验数据,针对这一问题,提出了一种基于无失效数据的滚动轴承剩余寿命非等间隔灰色预测方法。首先,采用滚动轴承的无失效数据模型和E-Bayes理论,计算出了每一个截尾时间滚动轴承可靠度估计值;然后,将滚动轴承每个截尾时间计算出的可靠度估计值进行了等间隔转化,以转化后的可靠度估计值为参考序列,运用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)对滚动轴承进行了剩余寿命灰色预测;最后,将提出的方法应用于定时截尾实验得出的滚动轴承无失效数据,并将预测结果与E-Bayes计算值进行了对比。研究结果表明:采用该方法预测轴承残差和相对误差时,与E-Bayes计算值相比,采用非等间隔灰色预测方法,可以将轴承剩余寿命预测结果的偏差控制在3%以内,具有较高的预测精度;该方法可以为滚动轴承剩余寿命的准确预测提供新的思路。
The traditional life prediction of rolling bearings needed to carry out the whole life test,and a large number of test data needed to be processed by mathematical or physical models.Aiming at this problem,a non-equal interval grey prediction method for the remaining life of rolling bearings based on zero-failure data was proposed.First of all,using the zero-failure data model of rolling bearing and E-Bayes theory,the reliability estimation value of rolling bearing at each censoring time was calculated.Then,the reliability estimation value calculated by each censoring time of rolling bearing was transformed by equal interval.Taking the transformed reliability estimation value as the reference sequence,the grey prediction model GM(1,1)was used to predict the remaining life of rolling bearing.Finally,the proposed method was applied to the zero-failure data of rolling bearings obtained from the timing censoring test,and the predicted results were comparing with the E-Bayes calculated values.The results show that,comparing with the E-Bayes calculation value,the prediction residual and relative error of this method can be controlled within 3%by the non-equidistant grey prediction method,which has high prediction accuracy.The method can provide a new idea for the accurate prediction of the remaining life of rolling bearings.
作者
刘国
姚齐水
余江鸿
LIU Guo;YAO Qi-shui;YU Jiang-hong(Hunan Automobile Engineering Vocational College,Zhuzhou 412001,China;School of Mechanical Engineering,Hunan University of Technology,Zhuzhou 412007,China)
出处
《机电工程》
CAS
北大核心
2022年第4期501-506,共6页
Journal of Mechanical & Electrical Engineering
基金
湖南省自然科学基金资助项目(2021JJ50054)。
关键词
滚动轴承剩余寿命
全寿命实验
轴承可靠度估计值
无失效数据
非等间隔
灰色预测
rolling bearings residual life
whole life test
reliability estimation value of bearings
zero-failure data
unequal interval
grey prediction
