摘要
本文通过构建包含人口迁移成本和贸易成本的多地区空间一般均衡模型,分析了地区性财政政策对经济产出和福利的影响。研究表明,单个地区支出政策对产出和福利的影响可以分解为全要素生产率、要素禀赋、再配置调节、转移支付等多个渠道。地区生产性政府支出对产出和福利的影响主要通过全要素生产率渠道产生,而社会保障性支出的影响则主要通过转移支付渠道产生,且主要影响福利水平。支出政策乘数的方向和强弱具有较强的地区异质性。在单个地区生产性支出增加对总产出的边际影响中,约23%是对其他地区的负向溢出效应,而社会保障性支出增加对整体福利的边际影响中,约15%表现为对其他地区的正向溢出,跨地区贸易和人口流动机制的引入是弹性大小的重要影响因素。反事实估计表明,城市群政策将给城市群外的其他地区的经济发展带来一定的虹吸效应,但同时也会对这些地区的居民效用产生正向溢出效果。本文的研究为理解多地区财政政策配置对整体经济的影响提供了理论证据,也为区域经济协调发展提供了有益参考。
This article explores the impact of fiscal expenditure reallocation on the social welfare and economic output based on a multi-regional spatial general equilibrium model including migration costs and trade costs.The results show that the impact of fiscal expenditure policy in one single region could be divided into four channels:total factor productivity,factor flow,reallocation,and transfer,which have different direction and size of the spillover effect.The impact of regional productive expenditure on output and welfare is mainly produced through the TFP channel,while the impact of social security expenditure is mainly produced through transfer effects,and mainly affect the social welfare.This article describes the direction and size of policy multiplier when the policy is implemented in one certain province in detail,and analyzes the heterogeneity and its source.We find that in general,23% of the impact of the productive expenditure in one single region on the overall output is manifested as negative spillover effect(crowding-out effect) on other regions.By contrast,15% of the impact of social security expenditure on social welfare could manifested as positive spillovers to other regions.The introduction of cross-regional migration and trade could impose an important influence on the quantitively measurement of policy effect.In addition,counterfactual estimates indicate that the urban agglomeration policy will bring a siphon effect to the economic development of other regions,but it will also produce a positive spillover effect on the welfare of residents in surrounding regions.This article provides quantitative theoretical evidence for understanding the impact of fiscal expenditure allocation on the aggregate output and welfare in a multi-regional framework,and also provide suggestions for the coordinated development of regional economy.
作者
周慧珺
傅春杨
龚六堂
ZHOU Hui-jun;FU Chun-yang;GONG Liu-tang(Institute of Economics CASS,Beijing 100836,China;School of Economics UCASS,Beijing 102488,China;School of International Economics and Management BTBU,Beijing 102488,China;Guanghua School of Management,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)
出处
《中国工业经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第2期42-60,共19页
China Industrial Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“实质性减税降费与经济高质量发展研究”(批准号19ZDA069)
国家自然科学基金专项项目“中国贸易投资开放发展:基本规律、宏观效应与‘双循环’新发展格局构建”(批准号72141309)。
关键词
人口流动
贸易成本
财政支出乘数
空间一般均衡模型
migration
trade cost
fiscal expenditure multiplier
spatial general equilibrium model
