摘要
在近年来城市群一体化、人口聚集和城市开发与扩张的驱动下,长株潭城市群能源加剧消耗,环境问题也日渐突出。本文基于MODIS遥感数据分析长株潭城市群2015年~2018年气溶胶光学厚度的时空变化特征,并在此基础上利用差分自回归移动平均模型(简称ARIMA),对研究区域气溶胶变化趋势进行短期预测。研究表明:①长株潭城市群气溶胶光学厚度在2015年~2018年间呈下降趋势,月均值在2016年4月达到最高,最大值为1.01;2015年12月达到最低,最小值为0.14;②春季的气溶胶光学厚度远高于其他三个季节,夏、秋、冬三个季节呈现一定的波动性;③空间分布上气溶胶光学厚度在西北部地区AOD值偏高,东南部AOD值偏低,并且AOD值湘潭市>长沙市>株洲市,高值地区集中在湘潭市和长沙市。④ARIMA模型预测表明2019年~2021年长株潭城市群的气溶胶光学厚度呈下降趋势,说明政府实施的长株潭城市群“绿心计划”对该区域的环境保护起到了良好的正面作用。
Driven by the integration of urban agglomeration,population agglomeration and urban development and expansion in recent years,the energy consumption of Changsha Zhuzhou Xiangtan urban agglomeration has increased,and the environmental problems have become increasingly prominent.Based on MODIS remote sensing data,this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of aerosol optical thickness in Chang Zhu Tan urban agglomeration from 2015 to 2018,and uses the differential autoregressive moving average model(ARIMA)to predict the aerosol change trend in the study area in the short term.The results show that:①the aerosol optical thickness of Chang Zhu Tan urban agglomeration showed a downward trend from 2015 to 2018,and the monthly mean reached the highest in April 2016,with a maximum of 1.01;It reached the minimum in December 2015,with a minimum value of 0.14;②The aerosol optical thickness in spring is much higher than that in the other three seasons,and fluctuates in summer,autumn and winter;③In terms of spatial distribution,the AOD value of aerosol optical thickness is high in the northwest and low in the southeast,and the AOD value is Xiangtan>Changsha>Zhuzhou.The high value areas are concentrated in Xiangtan and Changsha.④ARIMA model prediction shows that the aerosol optical thickness of Changsha Zhuzhou Xiangtan urban agglomeration shows a downward trend from 2019 to 2021,indicating that the“green heart plan”of Changsha Zhuzhou Xiangtan urban agglomeration implemented by the government has played a good positive role in environmental protection in the region.
作者
管庆丹
左小清
李石华
Guan Qingdan;Zuo Xiaoqing;Li Shihua(School of Land and Resources Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650093,China;Yunnan Basic Geographic Information Center,Kunming 650093,China)
出处
《城市勘测》
2022年第2期31-37,共7页
Urban Geotechnical Investigation & Surveying
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“耦合人类活动和气候变化的抚仙湖流域土地利用/覆盖变化情景模拟及其与水质的响应机制”(41861051)
国家自然科学基金项目“滇中快速城市化过程中土地利用与生态系统服务的动态耦合机制及优化调控模拟研究”(41971369)
云南省自然科学基金项目“生态文明建设排头兵引领下的云南三线协调与优化研究”(202101AT070052)共同资助。
关键词
MODIS
气溶胶光学厚度
ARIMA模型
时空分布
长株潭城市群
MODIS
Aerosol optical thickness
ARIMA model
spatial and temporal distribution
Changsha Zhuzhou Xiangtan urban agglomeration
