摘要
从经济学角度揭示不同类型林业碳汇项目碳汇供给成本,不仅可为国家林业碳汇项目发展方向与优先序的确定提供参考,而且还可为优化林业资源配置、实现碳中和目标的林业增汇政策制定提供决策参考。以中国最为重要的CCER林业碳汇项目为例,在系统比较林业碳汇项目与林业非碳汇项目经营特征与投入产出差异的基础上,基于机会成本视角,比较分析不同类型CCER林业碳汇供给成本差异及其影响因素。研究表明:(1)林业碳汇供给成本由高到低分别为毛竹造林碳汇项目、杉木造林碳汇项目、杉木经营碳汇项目和毛竹经营碳汇项目,总体看造林项目的碳汇供给成本高于经营项目,表明目前经营项目比造林项目更具经济可行性;(2)木材(竹材)价格对不同类型CCER林业碳汇项目碳汇供给成本有负向影响,而贴现率、劳动力价格、肥料价格和苗木价格对不同类型CCER林业碳汇项目碳汇供给成本有正向影响。上述不同因素对不同类型CCER项目碳汇供给成本的影响程度存在明显差异,使得不同类型CCER项目碳汇供给成本大小顺序发生明显变化,但多数情景下仍呈现出经营项目碳汇供给成本低于造林项目。最后,提出了促进林业碳汇项目开发以及林业碳汇交易等方面的政策建议。
Revealing the carbon sink costs of different types of forestry carbon sink projects from an economic perspective can not only provide a reference for the determination of the development direction and priority of national forestry carbon sink projects,but also provide decision-making reference for optimizing the allocation of forest resources and achieving carbon neutrality goals.Therefore,taking the most important China Certified Emission Reduction(CCER)forestry carbon sequestration project in China as an example,this paper systematically compares the operational characteristics and input-output differences between the forestry carbon sequestration project and the forestry non-carbon sequestration project.And then,from the perspective of opportunity cost,the difference of carbon sequestration supply costs and its influencing factors of different types of CCER forestry carbon sequestration project were compared and analyzed.Research shows that:(1)The forestry carbon sink supply costs from high to low are the bamboo forestation carbon sink project,the Chinese fir afforestation carbon sink project,the Chinese fir management carbon sink project,and the bamboo management carbon sink project.In general,the carbon sink supply cost of afforestation projects is higher than that of management projects,this suggests that it may be more economically feasible to give priority to the development of improved forest management project;(2)Wood(bamboo)prices have a negative impact on the carbon sink supply costs of different types of CCER forestry carbon sequestration project,while discount rate,labor price,fertilizer price and nursery stock prices have a positive impact on the carbon sink supply costs of different types of CCER forestry carbon sequestration project.The influence of the above factors on the costs of carbon sink supply of different types of CCER projects is significantly different,which makes the order of the carbon sink supply costs of different types of CCER projects significantly change.However,the carbon sequestration supply cost of improved forest management project is still lower than that of afforestation projects in most scenarios.Finally,based on the above research results,the policy implications of promoting the development of forestry carbon sequestration projects and trading of forestry carbon sequestration are proposed.
作者
曹先磊
程毅明
吴伟光
CAO Xian-lei;CHENG Yi-ming;WU Wei-guang(Faculty of International Trade,Shanxi University of Finance and Economics,Taiyuan 030006,China;School of Economics and Management,Zhejiang Agriculture and Forestry University,Hangzhou 311300,China;Zhejiang Institute of Rural Revitalization,Zhejiang Agriculture and Forestry University,Hangzhou 311300,China)
出处
《统计与信息论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第5期52-63,共12页
Journal of Statistics and Information
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目“碳交易背景下林业碳汇项目风险测度、影响机理与管理对策研究”(71873126)
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“碳中和目标下碳汇林经营不确定性对林农参与行为的影响机理及激励机制研究”(21YJC790003)
山西省科技战略研究专项项目“‘双碳’背景下山西省林业碳汇产品价值实现机制、制约因素与支持政策研究”(202104031402076)。
关键词
碳中和
林业碳汇项目
成本收益
碳汇供给成本
敏感性分析
carbon neutralization
forestry carbon sink project
cost benefit
carbon sink supply cost
sensitivity analysis
