摘要
大国崛起应重视目标与能力、资源的平衡,长远利益与眼前利益的平衡,国家利益在时间与空间层面的轻重缓急。它对大国的核心叙事逻辑是战略自主性,包括“时间自主”与“空间自主”。据此推演出影响俄国风险决策偏好的因果机制:战略文化→安全困境→决策偏好。认为大陆属性、侧翼位置、扩张传统以及贯穿始终的帝国统治逻辑是俄国战略文化的形成动因,它能塑造俄国战略决策的安全动机/贪婪动机,对决策偏好起结构性自变量作用,具有相对稳定性与战略动态性。对权力对比、权力转移、战略互动、攻防平衡的认知和预期构成了观念上的安全困境,有助于维持现状/修正主义战略意图的形成,是中介变量。俄国历史上的主要决策偏好取向是有限修正主义风险承担/维持积极现状的风险规避。后冷战时代俄罗斯实现了地缘政治回归,对帝国的历史传统具有高度继承性,但由于安全困境认知的变化,俄国很难短期内构建帝国体系。
The balance between goals,capabilities and resources,the tradeoff of long-term interests and short-term interests,and the priority of national interests in time and spatial dimensions are all important tasks for rising powers,of which the core narrative logic for great powers is strategic autonomy,including autonomy in time and spatial dimensions.Based on this,we deduce the causal mechanism affecting Russia's risk decision preference:from strategic culture to security dilemma,then to decision preference.The continental attribute,flanking position,expansion tradition,and the consistent logic of imperial rule are the motives for the formation of Russian strategic culture,which can shape the security motive/greed motive of Russian strategic decision-making and play a structural independent variable role in decision-making preference.As mediating variables,the perception and expectation of power balance,power transfer,strategic interaction,and offense-defense balance constitute the conceptual security dilemma,which contributes to the formation of status quo/revisionist strategic intentions.The dominating policy preference orientation in Russian history is limited revisionist risk-taking/risk aversion to maintain a positive status quo.In the post-Cold War era,Russia has achieved a geopolitical return and has a high degree of inheritance of the imperial historical tradition.However,due to changes in the perception of security dilemma,it is difficult for Russia to build an imperial system in the short term.
出处
《俄罗斯学刊》
2022年第3期44-77,共34页
Academic Journal of Russian Studies
基金
辽宁省哲学社会科学青年人才培养对象委托课题“大陆强国走向海洋的历史经验及对‘一带一路’倡议的启示”(项目编号:2022lslwtkt-205)阶段性成果。
