摘要
为能更客观评估冶金企业煤气单元风险,解决冶金企业煤气单元标准化评审过程中分值介于界限值左右不能明确判定等级的情形,构建了基于层次分析法的SPA-马尔科夫链的煤气单元风险动态评估模型,根据相关标准规范构建了煤气单元风险评估指标体系,运用层次分析法赋予各评估指标合理的权重,通过SPA计算联系度反映单元风险的大小及变化趋势,运用马尔科夫链模型推算下一时段的联系度等,从而判断煤气单元下一周期的风险动向,为明确冶金企业煤气单元标准化等级提供参考方法。通过算例分析可知,构建的动态评估模型对于解决以上问题是科学、有效的。
In order to evaluate the risk of gas unit in metallurgical enterprises more objectively and solve the situation that the level cannot be clearly determined when the score is between the threshold value and the standardized evaluation of gas unit,a dynamic assessment model of gas unit risk based on SPA-Markov chain of hierarchical analysis is constructed.According to relevant standards,the risk assessment index system of gas unit for metallurgical enterprise is established,and each assessment index of the index system is assigned the reasonable weights through the analytic process.To provide a reference method for clarifying the standardization grade of gas unit in metallurgical enterprises,using the SPA model to calculuate the connection degree for reflecting the size and changing trend of gas unit risk,and using the Markov chain model to calculate the connection degree of the next time period for determining the risk trend of the gas unit in the next cycle.
作者
周琪
林坤峰
徐厚友
郝玉泽
杨凯伦
ZHOU Qi;LIN Kunfeng;XU Houyou;HAO Yuze;YANG Kailun(Sinosteel Wuhan Safety & Environmental Protection Research Institute Co.,Ltd. Wuhan 430081)
出处
《工业安全与环保》
2022年第6期23-26,共4页
Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection
关键词
煤气
风险评估
层次分析法
集对分析
马尔科夫链
gas
risk assessment
analytic hierarchy process
set pair analysis
Markov chain
