摘要
电力负荷预测作为电力系统的基本组成,在电力调度中扮演着重要角色,气象因子则作为十分关键的负荷影响因素被广泛引入到电力负荷预测模型中,准确把握气象因子与电力负荷之间的时空关联特性已经成为提升负荷预测水平的关键。目前相关研究缺乏对中国各区域气象因子与电力负荷之间关系系统全面的分析。文章提出了一种气象因子与电力负荷的时空关联分析方法,并设计了时空关联分析系统,该系统基于真实数据,利用数据驱动的方法,精细化地分析了全国范围内各区域、各时间段中气象因子与电力负荷的关联特性。具体分析时,首先从原始负荷中分离出气象负荷,然后采用最大信息系数度量不同区域、不同时间、不同气象因子与气象负荷之间的线性或非线性关系。最后通过负荷预测实验证明了提出系统的高效性和实用性,该系统的分析结果可为负荷预测相关研究起到基础性指导作用。
As a basic component of power system applications,power load forecasting plays an important role in power dispatching.As a very key load influencing factor,meteorological factors are widely introduced into power load forecasting model.Accurately learning the spatio-temporal relationship between meteorological factors and power load has become the key to improve the level of load forecasting.At present,there is a lack of systematic and comprehensive analysis of the relationship between regional meteorological factors and power load in China.This paper proposes a spatio-temporal correlation analysis method between meteorological factors and power load,and designs a spatio-temporal correlation analysis system.Based on real data,the system uses data-driven method to finely analyze the correlation characteristics between meteorological factors and power load in various regions and time periods throughout the country.In the specific analysis,firstly,the meteorological load is separated from the original load,and then the maximum information coefficient is used to measure the linear or nonlinear relationship between different regions,different times,different meteorological factors and meteorological load.Finally,the efficiency and practicability of the proposed system are proved by load forecasting experiments.The analysis results of the system can play a basic guiding role for the research of load forecasting.
作者
董家富
薛一波
DONG Jiafu;XUE Yibo(Department of Automation,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Department of Computer Science and Technology,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)
出处
《电力信息与通信技术》
2022年第6期11-23,共13页
Electric Power Information and Communication Technology
关键词
气象因子
电力负荷
气象负荷
最大信息系数
小波相干分析
时空关联特性
meteorological factor
power load
meteorological load
maximum information coefficient
WTC
spatio-temporal correlation characteristic
