摘要
利用MICAPS形势场和物理量场资料、数值预报、雷达资料等,分析了2021年6月9—10日湘中娄底地区出现的强降水和强对流天气。探究了9日08:00~10日08:00 24 h降雨量主观预报量级偏小,中雨、大雨以及暴雨漏报的原因。结果表明:6月9日和10日的降水均为原地生成的回波,为局地对流性降水,都不是系统性的降水,这种局地性的对流降水目前预报难度较大,多参考国家气象局3 h的气压场和过程前每小时的地面填图分析,对临近的预报预警有一定的指示作用。今后需加强对局地性强对流天气个例的总结和分析,以提高预报的准确性。
Based on the data of MICAPS situation field and physical quantity field,numerical prediction and radar data, the heavy precipitation and severe convective weather in Loudi area of central Hunan from June 9to 10, 2021 were analyzed. The reasons that the subjective forecast magnitude of 24-hour rainfall from 08:00 on the 9th to 08:00 on the 10th June was too small, and the reports of moderate rain, heavy rain and rainstorm were missed were explored;At the same time,the 24-hour rainfall from 08:00 on the 10th to 08:00 on the 11th June was analyzed. The results showed that the precipitation on June 9 and 10 was the echo generated in situ. It was local convective precipitation, which was not systematic precipitation. At present, it was difficult to predict this local convective precipitation. Most of them refer to the 3-hour pressure field of the National Bureau and the hourly ground mapping analysis before the process, which had a certain guiding role for the adjacent prediction and early warning. In the future, it was necessary to strengthen the summary and analysis of local severe convective weather cases, draw effective experience and make more accurate prediction.
作者
刘热雄
邓梅
王雪琦
肖诗尧
LIU Rexiong(Lengshuijiang Meteoro-logical Bureau,Lengshuijiang,Hunan 417500)
出处
《农业灾害研究》
2022年第4期56-58,共3页
Journal of Agricultural Catastrophology
关键词
对流性强降水
形势场
雷达回波
Convective heavy precipitation
Situation field
Radar echo
