摘要
美元在世界经济和金融体系中具有不可替代的重要作用,美联储货币政策的全球溢出效应显著,同时由于石油美元体系的存在,美元政策会给国际原油市场带来溢出效应。受新冠肺炎疫情持续影响叠加地缘政治,美联储终于在2022年3月宣布加息,开启新一轮货币紧缩周期。通过分析美联储对国际原油市场溢出效应的机理和对其效应的探讨研究,发现美联储货币紧缩将加大美国乃至全球经济的衰退风险,拖累原油市场,恶化产油国财政、加重融资负担、加剧资本外流和金融动荡等。建议石油企业要高度关注油价波动和国际融资成本风险,积极探索人民币结算油气贸易,保障海外投资安全。
The US dollar remains to be irreplaceable and important in the world economy and financial system.The global spillover effect of the Fed's monetary policy is significant.Also,due to the existence of the petrodollar system,the US dollar policy has spillover effects on the international crude oil market.Due to the impact of corona virus COVID-19 pandemic together with superimposed geopolitical risks,the US Federal Reserve(Fed)finally increased the interest rate in March 2022,starting a new cycle of monetary tightening.By analyzing the mechanism and effect of the Fed's spillover effect on the international crude oil market,it is found that the Fed's tightening of monetary policy will increase the risk of recession in the US and even global economy;and suppress crude oil demand,worsen the fiscal situation of oil-producing countries,up-leveling their debt cost,aggravating capital outflows and financial turmoil.This paper proposes that oil companies pay more attention to fluctuation of oil prices and overseas financing costs,and actively explore an increase in RMB settlement of oil and gas trade to enhance security of overseas investment.
作者
王震
何曦
WANG Zhen;HE Xi(CNOOC Energy Economics Institute,Beijing,100013,China)
出处
《天然气与石油》
2022年第3期1-7,共7页
Natural Gas and Oil
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金“规模与环境友好双导向下海洋油气开发激励机制设计与政策研究”(19YJCZH106)。
关键词
货币政策
原油市场
溢出效应
Monetary policy
Crude oil market
Spillover effect
