摘要
凯恩斯在1930年发表的一篇论文中预测,生产率将得到极大的提高,以致困扰人类的经济问题将在一百年之后得到解决。他预见在生产率提高的过程中,将始终伴随着成长中的烦恼和调整中的痛楚,事实上提出了一个如何分享生产率成果的命题。本文称之为“凯恩斯悖论”。本文从经济史和经济学说史角度揭示,这个以悖论形式存在的命题提出了一个关于经济发展的真实问题,并且与另一个著名的命题即“索洛悖论”具有逻辑上和经验事实上的密切关联,因而可以成为解答后者的钥匙。本文阐释了在创造性破坏机制作用受到制约条件下,普遍产生的资源配置僵化和退化现象,是技术进步过程中整体生产率提高受阻的原因,因而做出一个关于索洛悖论的另类解释。本文还阐释了生产率合理分享是生产率持续提高的保障,并提出生产率分享的终极途径是建立一个随着生产率增长而不断提高社会福利水平的制度体系。
In his promine nt essay published in 1930,Keynes predicted an exponential enhancement in productivity,which would eventually enable mankind to get rid of long-lasting economic problem in a hundred years.He anticipated that the process of productivity growth would he accompanied by the growing pains of over-rapid changes and the painfulness of readjustment.Such a scholarly question of how productivity gains should be shared can be stylized as the Keynes Paradox.Through the framework of both economic and economics history,this paper asserts that the Keynes Paradox raises a real question about long-run economic development and is closely related to another famous topic-namely,the Solow Paradox,logically and empirically,therefore,the Keynes Paradox can provide the way to crack the Solow Paradox.This paper suggests that the malfunction of creative destruction mechanism gives rise to the widely existing immobility and degradation of resources allocation,which is the root cause of the stagnation of overall productivity in the course of technological progress.Such a proposition actually puts forward an alternative interpretation of the Solow Paradox.The policy implication of the analysis is twofold.Firstly,properly sharing the productivity gains serves as a guarantee for sustained growth of productivity.Secondly,the ultimate institutional arrangement of sharing productivity gains is to build a system that constantly improves social welfare in accordance with productivity growth.
作者
蔡昉
Cai Fang(Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
出处
《经济思想史学刊》
2022年第2期3-22,共20页
Bulletin of the History of Economic Thought
