摘要
为了建立更为客观且评价精度更高的泥石流危险性评价模型,深入分析泥石流危险性的影响因素,运用层次分析法构建了不同降雨工况下动态权重系统,结合模糊综合评价法实现了对苏峪口泥石流危险性动态评价。结果表明:随着降雨强度变化,指标权重呈现非线性动态变化特征,研究区泥石流危险性对各危险等级的隶属度不断变化,表现为随着降雨量增大,危险性逐级升高。分析认为所提出的泥石流危险性动态评价方法在考虑降雨指标取值变化对评价结果影响的基础上,兼顾了指标权重对降雨工况的响应,评价结果相对传统方法更为精准,也更符合客观实际。
In order to establish a more objective and more accurate assessment model of debris flow risk,the influencing factors of debris flow risk were analyzed.The dynamic weight system under different rainfall conditions was constructed by the analytic hierarchy process,and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used.The results show that with the change of rainfall intensity,the index weight presents the characteristics of nonlinear dynamic change.The membership degree of debris flow risk to each risk level in the study area changes continuously,which shows that the risk increases step by step with the increase of rainfall.The analysis shows that on the basis of considering the impact of the change of rainfall index value on the evaluation results,the proposed debris flow risk dynamic evaluation method takes into account the response of index weight to rainfall conditions,and the evaluation results are more accurate and more in line with the objective reality than the traditional methods.
作者
田兴华
朱厚影
韩静云
储怡鑫
薛凯喜
徐光标
齐小宏
TIAN Xing-hua;ZHU Hou-ying;HAN Jing-yun;CHU Yi-xin;XUE Kai-xi;XU Guang-biao;QI Xiao-hong(China Railway 16th Bureau Group Road and Bridge Engineering Co., Ltd., Beijing 100215, China;School of Civil and Construction Engineering, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China;Civil Engineering College, Northern University for Nationalities, Yinchuan 750001, China)
出处
《科学技术与工程》
北大核心
2022年第13期5411-5416,共6页
Science Technology and Engineering
基金
宁夏回族自治区自然科学基金(2020AAC03222)
国家自然科学基金(42167024)。
关键词
降雨
泥石流
危险性评价
动态权重
rainfall
debris flow
risk evaluation
dynamic weight
