摘要
本文基于微观认知心理机制、来解释国家对外政策议程为何时而凸显合作、时而转向竞争的演变逻辑。考察莫迪政府对华政策的演变历程可发现,为保持与自身愿望一致,莫迪政府会通过诱发定势、历史类比这类锚定效应,以及愿望思维、独立型自我图式这类机制来识别中方意图及判断自身面临的处境,并据此设置对华政策,这表明战略自主性是调整莫迪政府对华政策的重要动力。在不完全信息背景下,导向需求成为莫迪政府对华政策趋于强硬的一项重要心理机制。在固有认知局限的影响下,莫迪政府对华政策议程总体上表现出竞争中有限合作的特征。最后,文章尝试对未来如何管控双方分歧提供认知心理学层面的启示。
A state’s foreign policymaking is inextricably linked to robust information flows and effective cognitive mechanisms for interpreting information.As such,it is easy for issues to emerge around how cognitive patterns affect the foreign policy agenda.Based on micro-psychology,this article attempts to explain the evolutionary logic causing states to sometimes adopt foreign policy frameworks emphasizing cooperation,and at other times to turn in the direction of competition.In this direction,the study considers the case of the evolution of the Modi government’s China policy.In order to maintain cognitive consistency,the Modi administration will use anchoring effects,including induced stereotypes and historical analogies,as well as wishful thinking and independent self-schema to interpret China’s intentions,and to appraise the scenario faced by India.This in turn will serve as the basis for determining policy towards China.This illustrates how strategic autonomy is the main driver of the Modi administration’s policy towards China.In situations of incomplete information,general guiding needs are an important psychological mechanism that will tilt the Modi government in the direction of adopting a hardline policy towards China.By reviewing the last seven years of history of cooperation and conflict with China vis-à-vis the Modi administration’s policies,this article attempts to explain the evolution of a state’s foreign policy from a perspective of cognitive psychology.The author argues that under the influence of inherent cognitive limitations,the Modi administration has emphasized competition in its policy towards China,while cooperation remains limited in general.Finally,the article provides insights from cognitive psychology that can help manage differences between states.
出处
《南亚研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第2期41-62,157,158,共24页
South Asian Studies
关键词
莫迪政府
对华政策议程
锚定效应
战略自主性
认知局限
Modi Administration
India’s China Policy Agenda
Anchoring Effect
Strategic Autonomy
Cognitive Limitation
