摘要
铁路工程EPC总承包模式下,风险管控主要参与方基于有限理性的决策行为影响了项目管理绩效的提高.基于演化博弈理论,对铁路工程EPC总承包项目中业主和总承包商的风险治理策略作出假设,构建了业主和总承包商风险治理行为的演化博弈模型,并通过寻找演化博弈策略选择过程中的演化均衡点来确定各方不同策略选择的演化趋势.此外,还通过数值模拟仿真分析方法研究了不同因素对业主和总承包商风险管控策略选择的影响.研究表明:铁路工程EPC总承包项目中,业主与总承包商的风险治理行为演化博弈策略可以分为8种不同的情形;风险损失、惩罚费用、风险损失分担比例、风险管控成本对双方的策略选择均有不同程度的影响.本研究对铁路工程EPC总承包项目的风险治理具有一定的理论参考价值.
Under the EPC general contract model of railway engineering,the decision-making behavior of the main participants of risk management based on limited rationality affects the improvement of project management performance.Based on the evolutionary game theory,by making assumptions about the risk management strategies of the owner and the general contractor in the EPC general contract project of railway engineering,an evolutionary game model of the risk management behavior of the owner and the general contractor is constructed.The evolutionary trend of different strategy choices of each party is determined by finding the evolutionary equilibrium point in the process of strategy choice of the evolutionary game.In addition,the impact of different factors on the risk management strategy choice of the owner and the general contractor is also investigated through numerical simulation analysis.The study shows that the evolutionary game strategy of risk management behavior between the owner and the general contractor in the EPC general contract project of railway engineering can be divided into eight different scenarios.The risk loss,penalty cost,risk loss sharing ratio and risk management cost have different degrees of influence on the strategy choices of both parties.This study has a certain theoretical reference value for risk governance in EPC general contract project of railway engineering.
作者
权慧丽
刘玉明
QUAN Huili;LIU Yuming(School of Economics and Management,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)
出处
《河南科学》
2022年第6期938-947,共10页
Henan Science
基金
铁道部科技研究开发计划项目(B20SK00700)。
关键词
铁路工程
EPC总承包模式
风险治理
业主
总承包商
演化博弈
railway engineering
EPC general contract model
risk governance
owner
general contractor
evolutionary game
