摘要
教育决策的高利害性对其科学性提出了高要求,传统教育政策研究方法已难以满足教育决策发展需求。大数据、人工智能等技术的发展,使得可以前瞻性预测和分析政策实施效果的教育政策仿真成为可能。相较于“自上而下”的建模机制,以“自下而上”为取向的“基于主体的建模”更适用于教育政策仿真。其关注微观层面具有适应能力的主体,可通过主体的自主演化和主体间交互来预测教育政策实施效果,从而有助于解决教育决策中的复杂性和不确定性问题。教育政策仿真能够实现教育政策实施效果预测和风险评估,提高教育决策的科学性,有助于深入认识教育系统的运行法则和内在规律。此外,教育政策仿真还可以丰富和改进教育政策理论研究,助力现实情境中真实问题的挖掘。在具体实施上,教育政策仿真的具体操作步骤包括明确研究问题和建模目标、构建静态与动态概念模型、模型实现、模型检验、验证与校准、计算机仿真实验和结果分析等环节。
The high stakes of educational decision-making puts forward higher requirements for its scientific nature.However,traditional research methods for education policy cannot satisfy the needs of education policy improvement.With the continuous development of big data,artificial intelligence and other techniques,education policy simulation has become possible,which can forecast and analyze the outcomes of policy implementation.The“bottom-up”“agent-based modeling”is better suited for simulating education policy when compared with“top-down”modeling mechanism.Focusing on micro agents with adaptive capacity,“agent-based modeling”can predict the outcomes of education policy implementation through agents’evolution and their interaction,thus addressing the complexity and uncertainty of education policy research.Education policy simulation enables the prediction and risk assessment of education policy implementation,improves the scientific nature of educational decision-making,and helps to gain a deeper understanding of the operation rules and inner laws of the education system.In addition,it can also enlarge and enhance theoretical study on education policy and help discover real questions in actual circumstances.The procedures of implementing education policy simulation involve formulating research questions and modeling objectives,constructing static and dynamic conceptual models,implementing simulation models,verifying and validating simulation models,and conducting simulation experiments and analyzing results.
作者
何文萱
柯政
HE Wenxuan;KE Zheng
出处
《现代远程教育研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第4期65-72,90,共9页
Modern Distance Education Research
基金
2021年度全国教育科学规划国家重大项目“深化新时代教育评价改革的实施路径研究”(VFA210002)。
关键词
教育决策
教育政策仿真
基于主体的建模
仿真技术
Educational Decision-Making
Education Policy Simulation
Agent-Based Modeling
Simulation Technology
