摘要
近年来,极端气候事件频发,成为学术和社会各界关注的焦点问题。研究粤港澳大湾区极端天气的时空分布特征和变化规律,对及时、准确地做出防灾减灾预报、预警具有重要意义。以1961—2016年降水、气温数据为基础,通过启发式分割法、Mann-Kendall趋势检测和交叉小波法对粤港澳大湾区极端气候时空演变特征及其与驱动因子之间的相互关系进行分析。结果表明:极端降水和气温变化与太阳黑子和大尺度环流因子(多元ENSO指数(MEI))、太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)存在潜在联系,但它们对极端气候的影响作用存在差异。气候变化对城市建设和发展将持续产生重大影响。在对粤港澳大湾区气候变化的研究中,需关注珠江流域和典型区域气候变化的影响评估,加强流域极端天气发生机理、风险评估与对策研究,减轻极端气候事件带来的危害。
In recent years,frequent extreme climate events have become the focus of attention of the world.Studying the spatiotemporal evolution of extreme climate in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is of great significance for timely and accurate disaster prevention and mitigation forecasts and early warnings.On the basis of the precipitation and temperature data from 1961 to 2016,this paper uses the heuristic segmentation method,Mann-Kendall trend test,and cross wavelet method to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of extreme climate in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and its relationship with driving factors.The results reveal that extreme precipitation and temperature changes are potentially related to sunspots and large-scale circulation factors including the multivariate ENSO index(MEI)and interdecadal Pacific oscillation(IPO),but their effects on extreme climate are different.Climate change will continue to profoundly affect urban construction and development.For future studies on the climate change in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,attention should be paid to the impact assessment of climate change in the Pearl River Basin and typical regions,and the research on the occurrence mechanism,risk assessment,countermeasures of extreme weather in the basin should be strengthened to reduce the damage of extreme climate events.
作者
郭珊
张大伟
王亚迪
GUO Shan;ZHANG Dawei;WANG Yadi(Guangzhou PRHRI Engineering Survey&Design Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510611,China)
出处
《人民珠江》
2022年第7期36-51,共16页
Pearl River
关键词
极端气候
时空演变
太阳黑子
大尺度环流因子
粤港澳大湾区
extreme climate
spatiotemporal evolution
sunspots
large-scale circulation factors
Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area
