摘要
国家“碳达峰、碳中和”战略目标(以下简称“双碳”目标)的提出对长江三角洲(以下简称长三角)高质量一体化发展赋予了新的要求.本文基于长三角区域精细化排放清单和WRF-CMAQ模型,模拟了不同政策情景下区域空气质量改善情况.结果显示,绿色低碳情景(CP)较趋势照常情景(BAU)和末端强化情景(EP)具有更大的减排潜力,是实现绿色美丽长三角目标的重要路径.CP情景下,与2017年相比,预计2025年SO_(2)、NO_(x)、NMVOCs(non-methane volatile organic compounds)、一次PM_(2.5)排放将分别下降55.1%、26.5%、25.2%、27%;2035年,则将分别下降66%、56.4%、36.1%、39.4%.截至2035年,区域PM_(2.5)年均值和臭氧日8 h最大值第90百分位数(O_(3)-8 h 90th)将分别达到26和129μg m^(−3),50%地级市PM_(2.5)年均浓度将达到世界卫生组织第二阶段指导值.综合模拟结果,中长期全国和区域持续同步推动主要污染物的减排,将有望实现PM_(2.5)浓度持续改善和臭氧浓度的同步改善,实现协同减排的目标.近中期,绿色美丽长三角政策驱动的以末端治理为主的大气污染治理措施仍将继续对污染减排具有重要贡献,而中长期,由“双碳”目标驱动的能源、产业、交通结构调整措施对污染减排具有关键作用.持续大力推动NO_(x)和NMVOCs全面减排是实现PM_(2.5)与臭氧协同控制的关键.在延续现有严格的末端控制政策的基础上,进一步强化工业涂装、石化化工、橡塑、医药等涉挥发性有机物排放行业的产业结构调整,以及深入推进交通运输结构调整与加强新能源车船推广是中长期区域协同控制PM_(2.5)和臭氧的重要抓手.
As dynamic growth engine of the economy of China,the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)region is one of the most densely populated regions around the globe with advanced industrial cluster and developed transportation network,which has brought the problem of high intensity of air pollutant emissions including nitrogen oxides(NO_(x)),volatile organic compounds(VOCs),etc.Although PM_(2.5) air quality tremendously improved in recent years,ozone concentration showed an increasing trend,resulting in air pollution characterized by simultaneous high concentrations of PM_(2.5) and ozone.According to the 2020 Chinese Ecological and Environment Quality Bulletin issued by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of China,46%and 32%of the YRD cities are still above the Chinese air quality standards for PM_(2.5) and ozone respectively.Thus,coordinated control of PM_(2.5) and ozone has become the focus of improving air quality within the region.Facing the challenges of both climate change and air pollution,as a leading demonstration area in China,how can the YRD region first achieve the goal of simultaneous mitigating PM_(2.5) and ozone in the context of coping with climate change?In this study,based on a socio-economic development forecast framework coupled with the high-resolution air pollution emission inventory for the YRD region and the WRF-CMAQ air quality model,we simulated the improvement of regional air quality under different policy scenarios.The results show that the green low-carbon scenario(CP)has higher emission reduction potential than the business-as-usual(BAU)scenario and the more progressive scenario of end-of-pipe(EP)control policy,making it an important path in building a beautiful and green Yangtze River Delta in the long term.Under the CP scenario,compared to 2017,it is estimated that SO_(2),NO_(x),non-methane volatile organic compounds(NMVOCs),and primary PM_(2.5) emissions will decrease by 55.1%,26.5%,25.2%,and 27%in 2025;and 66%,56.4%,36.1%and 39.4%in 2035.The annual average PM_(2.5) concentration and the 90th percentile of daily maximum 8-h average ozone concentration(O_(3)-8 h 90th)in YRD will reach 26 and 129μg m^(−3),respectively by 2035,with 50%of 41 municipal cities in the region will even meet the standards in WHO IT-2.We show that to continuously improve the regional air quality,nationwide collaborations in the implementation of the strengthened abatement measures are needed in the medium and long-term attempts to simultaneously mitigate PM_(2.5) and ozone pollution.In the short-and medium-term,the end-of-pipe control scenario driven by the goal of“beautiful and green Yangtze River Delta”will play an important role in air pollution control.Starting from 2030,low-carbon policies driven by carbon neutral goals are expected to contribute significantly to the further reductions of both PM_(2.5) and ozone.To summarize,continuous and vigorous abatement in NO_(x) and NMVOCs is the key to mitigate PM_(2.5) and ozone pollution,and to achieve the current national air quality standard for both PM_(2.5) and ozone,the NO_(x) and NMVOCs emissions are expected to be reduced at least by 56%and 40%respectively,compared to 2017.The existing end-of-pipe control policy,in combination with other measures,including industrial restructuring,especially for NMVOCs-emission related industries(i.e.,industrial coating,petrochemical,chemical,rubber and plastics,pharmaceuticals),transportation restructuring,as well as the promotion of clean energy vehicles,non-road vehicles and ships are thus important means to the pollution control in the medium and long-term development in YRD region.
作者
戴海夏
安静宇
黄成
王红丽
周敏
乔利平
胡磬遥
楼晟荣
杨超
严茹莎
姜克隽
朱松丽
Haixia Dai;Jingyu An;Cheng Huang;Hongli Wang;Min Zhou;Liping Qiao;Qingyao Hu;Shengrong Lou;Chao Yang;Rusha Yan;Kejun Jiang;Songli Zhu(State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Formation and Prevention of Urban Air Pollution Complex,Shanghai Academy of Environmental Sciences,Shanghai 200233,China;Energy Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Marco-Economy Research,Beijing 100038,China)
出处
《科学通报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2022年第18期2100-2112,共13页
Chinese Science Bulletin
基金
国家重点研发计划(2018YFC0213800,2016YFC0207506)
上海市生态环境局重大科研项目(2020-03)资助。
