摘要
基于“双循环”背景,使用2005~2019年中国省级面板数据,探究城乡居民消费结构优化和扩大开放对产业结构升级的影响效应。首先,通过基准回归模型初步研究发现,城乡居民消费结构优化、扩大开放对产业结构升级均产生非线性影响。考虑内生性问题后,结论依然成立。其次,分别以城乡居民收入、城乡居民消费结构优化和扩大开放为门槛变量,构建面板门槛模型进一步检验。结果表明,分别以城乡居民收入为门槛变量时,无论是城镇层面,还是农村层面,城乡居民消费结构优化、扩大开放对产业结构升级均产生显著的非线性正向影响;分别以城乡居民消费结构优化、扩大开放自身为门槛变量时,城乡居民消费结构优化、扩大开放同样对产业结构升级产生非线性的正向影响。此外,扩大开放对产业结构升级的促进作用随着城乡居民消费的不断结构优化而逐渐下降。最后,缩小城乡收入差距、降低城乡居民预防性储蓄,优化供需结构、平衡内外部市场及加强科技研发投入是推动产业结构升级的重要路径。
In the context of the“double cycle”,this paper investigates the effects of optimizing urban and rural residents’consumption structure and expanding opening-up on industrial structure upgrading,using Chinese provincial panel data from 2005~2019.First,the preliminary study by the benchmark regression model finds that the optimization of urban and rural residents’consumption structure and the expanding opening-up have non-linear effects on industrial structure upgrading.After considering the endogeneity issue,the conclusion still is consistent.Second,the authors construct panel threshold models with urban and rural residents’income,urban and rural residents’consumption structure optimization and expanding opening-up as threshold variables respectively to further test.The results show that when urban and rural residents’income is used as the threshold variable,respectively,the optimization of urban and rural residents’consumption structure and the expanding opening-up have a significant non-linear positive impact on industrial structure upgrading,both at the urban and rural levels;When urban and rural residents’consumption structure optimization and expanding opening-up itself are used as threshold variables,respectively,urban and rural residents’consumption structure optimization and expanding opening-up same have a non-linear positive impact on industrial structure upgrading.In addition,with the continuous structural optimization of urban and rural residents’consumption,the promotion effect of expanding opening-up on industrial structure upgrading gradually decreases.Finally,narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas,reducing the preventive savings of urban and rural residents,optimizing the supply and demand structure,balancing the internal and external markets and strengthening the investment in scientific and technological research and development are important paths to promote the upgrading of industrial structure.
作者
马晓钰
刘家民
贾文利
李玉超
MA Xiao-yu;LIU Jia-min;JIA Wen-li;LI Yu-chao(School of Economics and Management,Xinjiang University,Urumqi Xinjiang 830002,China;School of Public Finance and Taxation,Xinjiang University of Finance&Economics,Urumqi Xinjiang,830012,China)
出处
《西北人口》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第4期70-81,共12页
Northwest Population Journal
基金
国家社会科学基金西部项目“后计划生育时代新疆少数民族生育转变研究”(批准号“21XRK007”)
新疆维吾尔自治区高校科研计划项目“新疆人才逆向流动与人才体系建设研究”(批准号“XJEDU2021S1002”)。
关键词
城乡居民消费结构优化
扩大开放
产业结构升级
城乡居民收入
面板门槛模型
Optimization of consumption structure of urban and rural residents
Expanding opening-up
Industrial structure upgrading
Income of urban and rural residents
Panel threshold model
