摘要
为探究高速铁路列控系统设备风险源因素之间的相互关系与重要性,分析高速铁路列控系统设备的风险源因素。基于复杂网络理论,运用DEMATEL方法,针对高速铁路培训教材以及调试、日常运营中出现的10类主风险源、80个具体风险源,构建高速铁路列控系统风险源因素模型,分析高速铁路列控系统设备各风险源因素间的相关性,并对各风险源因素的影响力进行排序,从而找出关键风险源。通过对中心度、原因度、节点度等方面的计算,获取到区间信号机状态错误等22个有较强致因效果的致因要素、设备易受干扰风险等14个有较强致因功能的要素,再综合致因作用和致因功能,提取出10个高速铁路列控系统设备事故关键风险源因素,最后根据关键风险源因素提出更有针对性的建议和措施。
The risk source factors of train control system equipment in high speed railway were analyzed to explore the relationship and importance of these factors. On the basis of complex network theory, this paper employed the DEMATEL method. Given 10 types of main risk sources and 80 specific risk sources in high speed railway training textbooks and daily operation, it built a risk source model of train control system in high speed railway. The model analyzed the correlation among the risk source factors of train control system equipment in high speed railway and sorted the influence of risk source factors to identify key risk sources. Through the calculation of centrality, causality, node degree, etc., 23causative factors with strong causative effect, such as interval signal state error, and 14 causative factors with strong causative function, such as equipment susceptible to interference risk, were obtained. Additionally, 11 key risk factors of train control system equipment accidents in high speed railway were extracted, and finally more targeted suggestions and measures were put forward according to the factors.
作者
刘红良
LIU Hongliang(Beijing Jingwei Information Technology Co.,Ltd.,China Academy of Railway Sciences Corporation Limited,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《铁道运输与经济》
北大核心
2022年第7期82-89,共8页
Railway Transport and Economy
基金
中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司科研项目(2019YJ154)。
