摘要
在我国人口老龄化程度不断加深和地方政府债务规模迅速膨胀的背景下,采用我国2009—2019年省级面板数据,基于空间杜宾模型,实证分析了我国人口老龄化对地方政府债务的影响和二者之间的深层次关系。研究发现:地方政府债务在空间上存在正向的关联性;随着人口老龄化程度的不断加深,它对我国地方政府债务的影响呈现“U”型关系;从长期来看,人口老龄化对我国地方政债务存在负面影响;人力资本是人口老龄化对地方政府债务产生影响的重要传导变量。人口老龄化能够通过影响人力资本的积累进而对我国地方政府债务产生重要影响。
Under the background of the deepening degree of China’s population aging and the rapid expansion of the scale of local government debt,an empirical analysis of the impact of China’s population aging on local government debt and the deep-seated relationship between them is made by using China’s provincial panel data from 2009 to 2019 based on the spatial Durbin model.The results show that there is a positive correlation of local government debt in space.With the deepening of population aging,its impact on China’s local government debt presents a“U”relationship.In the long run,population aging has a negative impact on China’s local government debt.Human capital is an important transmission way for the impact of population aging on local government debt.Population aging can have an important impact on China’s local government debt by affecting the accumulation of human capital.
作者
王彦平
陈绍坚
尹迎港
WANG Yanping;CHEN Shaojian;YIN Yinggang(School of Finance,Taxation and Public Management,Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou,Gansu 730030,China)
出处
《成都师范学院学报》
2022年第7期105-114,共10页
Journal of Chengdu Normal University
基金
甘肃省软科学专项项目“绿色技术助推黄河上游生态屏障建设的机理与公共政策研究”(20CX9ZA056)
甘肃省社会科学规划项目“甘肃脱贫攻坚与乡村振兴有效衔接的路径研究”(19YB008)。
关键词
人口老龄化
地方政府债务
空间杜宾模型
人力资本
地方财政
人口问题
population aging
local government debt
spatial Durbin model
human capital
local government budgets
population problem
