摘要
南海问题是中国长期面临的复杂国际政治难题,但关于南海问题对地区经济影响的经验研究相对匮乏。本文以菲律宾为研究对象,运用合成控制法构造了一个反事实对照对象——“合成菲律宾”,对杜特尔特政府“南海政策”实施后对中菲双边贸易的影响进行实证检验。研究发现,杜特尔特政府“南海政策”对中菲双边贸易产生了积极影响,其政策效应主要体现在菲律宾对中国的商品贸易进口以及旅游服务贸易出口方面。最后,本文为中、菲双方未来处理“南海问题”提出了相应的政策性建议。
The South China Sea issue is a complex international political challenge that China has faced for a long time, but there is a relatively lack of empirical research on the impact of the issue on the regional economy. Taking the Philippines, which had a fierce conflict with China in the South China Sea, as the subject of study, and using the synthetic control method to create a counterfactual subject—“synthetic Philippines”, we carry out an empirical test to study the impact on the bilateral trade between China and the Philippines after the implementation of the Duterte’s South China Sea Policy. The results show that the policy has a positive impact on the bilateral trade, and the effect is mainly reflected in the Philippines’ import of goods from China and the export of tourism services to China. Finally, this paper puts forward suggestions for China and the Philippines to deal with the South China Sea issue in the future.
作者
唐菁菁
王涛
Tang Jingjing;Wang Tao(School of Economics,Guangxi University)
出处
《区域与全球发展》
2022年第4期119-134,159,共17页
Area Studies and Global Development
基金
教育部人文社科青年基金项目“南海争端对中菲越经济影响效应及机制——基于合成控制方法的经验研究”(项目编号:17XJC790012)
国家自然科学基金地区科学基金“CAFTA对区域经济影响效应及机制——基于夜光遥感数据的经验研究”(项目编号:71764001)的阶段性研究成果。
关键词
南海政策
中菲贸易
合成控制法
South China Sea policy
bilateral trade
synthetic control method
