摘要
运用面板数据灰色关联理论和工具,基于GVC关键指标各国(地区)增加值出口的关联度对世界经济体系的中心国家(地区)进行了鉴别。从前向和后向分解两个维度测量了世界各国(地区)之间的经贸合作紧密程度及趋势,并对推动全球价值链中心国家(地区)形成的关键因素进行实证检验。结果表明,世界经济体系不是以单个国家(地区)为中心的环状结构,而是互联互通的网状结构,正在向地缘多极化发展,包括中国在内的29个国家(地区)是世界经济体系的中心国家(地区),全球价值链的深化、国民富裕程度、国家(地区)基础设施是推动一国(地区)成为世界经济体系中心的基础,国家(地区)之间的地理和经济距离影响深远,地理距离与价值链嵌入深度呈“倒U形”关系,并对FDI和价值链嵌入深度起非线性调解作用;经济地理复合距离引致相邻国家(地区)间的价值链嵌入整体上呈现正向空间外溢效应,但在单个因素层面上,资本存量、研发投入、ODFI、国家(地区)制度质量对前向和后向价值链呈现不同的空间外溢效应。
Applying the theories and tools of Grey relation analysis of panel data,based on the relevance of value added exports of various countries(regions)that being the key index of global value chain,this paper identifies central countries(regions)of the world economic system.It measures the degree and trend of economic and trade cooperation among countries(regions)in the world from two dimensions of forward decomposition and backward decomposition,and empirically examines the key factors which promote the formation of central countries(regions)of global value chain.The results show as follows:firstly,the world economic system is not a ring structure centered on a single country(region),but an interconnected network structure,which is developing towards localized aggregation and multipolarity.Secondly,29 countries(regions),including China,are the central countries(regions)of world economic system;deepening of global value chain,degree of national wealth and national(regional)infrastructure are the basis of promoting one country(region)to be a central country(region)of the world economic system.Thirdly,the geographical and economic distance between countries(regions)has a far-reaching impact;there is an“inverted U-shaped”impact between the geographical distance and embedding depth of value chain,and the geographical distance plays a non-linear mediating role in FDI and value chain embedding depth.Fourthly,the geographical and economic compound distance makes the value chain embeddedness between neighboring countries(regions)present an overall positive spatial spillover effect,while at the single factor level,capital stock,R&D,ODFI,and national(regional)institutional quality have different spatial spillover effects on forward and backward value chains.
作者
王晓东
赵勍升
WANG Xiaodong;ZHAO Qingsheng(School of Business Administration,Guangdong University of Finance,Guangzhou 510521,China)
出处
《开发研究》
2022年第3期114-128,共15页
Research On Development
