摘要
基于新安江流域2000、2010、2018年土地利用/覆被数据,运用InVEST模型和CA-Markov模型,分析流域内2000—2018年生境质量时空演变特征,并对2030年新安江流域土地空间格局和生境质量进行多情景预测。结果表明:(1)2000—2018年间,新安江流域的优势地类为林地和耕地;随着城镇化进程的快速推进,城市边界不断外延,建设用地增幅高达192.66%,主要由林地和耕地流入;(2)2000—2018年间,新安江流域生境质量高值区集中于中部林地,低值区集中于市县城市区域,生境质量等级以优等级为主;整体生境质量呈退化趋势,生境质量等级发生转移的区域面积为436.44 km2,等级降低的面积为324.85 km2,等级转好的区域面积为111.59 km2;(3)2018—2030年间,新安江流域内土地利用类型及生境质量的时空演变与2000—2018年的演变趋势基本一致。三种情景下,生境质量平均指数的高低序列为:生态优先情景>自然增长情景>经济发展情景。控制区域建设用地规模,对于维护生态系统稳定性至关重要。
Based on the land use/cover data of the Xin’an River Basin in 2000,2010 and 2018,the In-VEST model and the CA-Markov model were used to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of habitat mass in the basin from 2000 to 2018,and to predict the spatial pattern and habitat quality of the land in the Xin’an River Basin in 2030.The results show that:(1)From 2000 to 2018,the dominant land types in the Xin’an River Basin were forest land and cultivated land;with the rapid advancement of the urbanization process,the urban boundary was continuously extended,and the increase in construction land was as high as 192.66%,mainly by the inflow of forest land and cultivated land.(2)From 2000 to 2018,the high-value area of habitat quality in the Xin’an River Basin was concentrated in the central woodland,the low-value area was concentrated in the urban area of cities and counties,and the quality level of habitat was mainly excellent;the overall quality of habitat was degraded,and the area of habitat quality grade transfer was 436.44 km2,the area of reduced grade was 324.85 km2,and the area of area with improved grade was 111.59 km2.(3)Between 2018 and 2030,the temporal and spatial evolution of land use types and habitat quality in the Xin’an River Basin was basically consistent with the evolution trend of 2000-2018.Under the three scenari-os,the sequence of the average habitat quality index is:the ecological priority scenario,the natural growth scenario,the economic development scenario.Controlling the scale of land for construction in the area is crucial to maintaining the stability of the ecosystem.
作者
章磊
蔡俊
袁宏伟
徐玲慧
卫泽柱
陈笑雨
ZHANG Lei;CAI Jun;YUAN Hongwei;XU Linghui;WEI Zezhu;CHEN Xiaoyu(College of Economics and Management,Anhui Agricultural University,Hefei 230036,China)
出处
《云南农业大学学报（社会科学版）》
2022年第5期133-142,共10页
Journal of Yunnan Agricultural University(Social Science)
基金
安徽省教育厅科研项目“集体经营性建设用地承建公租房租金定价机制与路径优化研究”(SK2019A0133)。
