摘要
基于经济、政治和安全动机,利用2000—2019年30个制造业细分行业数据,实证分析了中美贸易摩擦对中国制造业发展的“直接-间接-扩散”作用机制。结果显示,经济、政治和扩散效应均显著影响中国制造业发展,但经济效应的影响程度低于政治和扩散效应。进一步分析发现,规模结构、打压程度和战略意图是弱化经济效应的主要原因,说明美国打压中国制造业的举措呈现精准性和扩散性。虽然中国已采取必要措施消减贸易摩擦的负面影响,但尚未从根本上解决依赖国际市场及粗放型贸易模式等问题。中国应把握贸易摩擦对制造业自我革新的倒逼作用,优化制造业转型升级的政策环境,合理培育创新主体,促进中国制造业高质量跨越发展。
Based on the economic motivation,political supply and security motivation,this paper studies the driving mechanism of Sino US trade friction on the development of Chinese manufacturing industry from the direct mechanism,indirect mechanism and diffusion mechanism.It used the statistical data of 30 industries from 2000 to 2019to analyze the economic,political and diffusion effects of Chinese manufacturing industry driven by Sino US trade friction.The results show that the economic,political and diffusion effects affect the development of Chinese manufacturing industry.But the economic effect on the development of Chinese manufacturing industry is lower than the political effect and diffusion effect.Further analysis found that the scale structure,degree of repression and strategic intention are the main reasons for weakening economic effect.It indicated that the US repression of Chinese manufacturing industry is accurate and diffuse.Although Chinese enterprises take necessary measures to reduce the negative impact of Sino US trade friction,its operation difficulty will gradually expand over time.China should make good use of the trade friction to force the self-innovation of manufacturing industry.It needs to promote institutional optimization and cultivate innovative subjects.Then China can realize high-quality leapfrogging of its manufacturing industry and win international competitiveness.
作者
郭扬
林珊
Guo Yang;Lin Shan
出处
《亚太经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第4期134-143,共10页
Asia-Pacific Economic Review
基金
新时代党的治疆方略理论与实践研究项目“中美贸易摩擦下新疆产业发展对策研究”(2021ZJFLY56)
新疆社科基金项目“新时代新疆高质量发展的动力转换研究”(21BJY041)。
关键词
贸易摩擦
制造业发展
政治效应
经济效应
The Trade Friction
Manufacturing Industry
Political Effect
Economic Effect
