摘要
“双循环”新发展格局下,农村市场消费潜力不容忽视。强化财政政策支持、完善金融供给对释放农村消费潜力至关重要。基于2011—2019年中国31个省份(不含我国港澳台地区)面板数据,构建PVAR模型,从动态视角探究财政支农、数字普惠金融与农村居民消费升级之间的作用关系。从全国层面上看,财政支农对数字普惠金融发展和农村居民消费升级均存在负向影响,而数字普惠金融发展能够促进农村居民消费升级。从不同区域看,东部和中部地区的财政支农能够显著促进农村居民消费升级,而西部地区则相反;中部和西部地区的数字普惠金融能够促进农村居民消费升级,而东部地区则相反;中部和西部地区财政支农能够促进数字普惠金融发展,而东部地区的促进作用存在短期滞后现象。进一步,固定效应模型回归结果验证了PVAR模型实证得出的关于财政支农、数字普惠金融与农村居民消费升级之间作用关系结论的稳健性。推进农村消费扩容提质升级需要进一步加大财政支农力度并优化财政支农支出结构,实施差异化的数字普惠金融发展政策,构建财政金融协同支农机制。
In the context of"dual circulation"new development pattern,the consumption potential of the rural market cannot be ignored.Strengthening fiscal policy support and improving financial supply are essential to unleash the consumption potential of rural residents.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces and autonomous regions in China’s mainland from 2011 to 2019,a PVAR model is constructed to empirically study the relationship between fiscal support for agriculture,digital inclusive finance and consumption upgrading of rural residents from a dynamic perspective.It is found that:at the national level,fiscal support for agriculture has a negative impact on the development of digital inclusive finance and consumption upgrading of rural residents,while digital inclusive finance development can promote consumption upgrading of rural residents.From a regional perspective,fiscal support for agriculture significantly promotes rural consumption upgrading in the eastern and central regions,while the opposite is true in the western region;digital inclusive finance promotes rural consumption upgrading in the central and western regions,while the opposite is true in the eastern region;fiscal support for agriculture promotes inclusive finance development in the central and western regions,while there is a short lag in the promotion effect in the eastern region.Further,the regression results of the fixed-effects panel model verify the robustness of the PVAR model findings.Based on the results of the empirical analysis,it is necessary to further increase financial support to agriculture and optimize the structure of financial support expenditure,implement differentiated digital inclusive finance development policies,and build a financial and fiscal synergy mechanism to support agriculture to promote rural consumption expansion and quality upgrading.
作者
岳喜优
陈桂生
YUE Xi-you;CHEN Gui-sheng(School of Politics and Administration,Tianjin Normal University,Tianjin 300387,China)
出处
《中国流通经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第9期60-70,共11页
China Business and Market
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目“西部民族地区典型牧区治理有效综合调查研究”(18AZD020)
天津市教育委员会科研计划项目“乡村振兴战略视阈下解决相对贫困的长效机制研究”(2020SK023)。
关键词
财政支农
数字普惠金融
消费升级
乡村振兴
financial support for agriculture
digital inclusive finance
consumption upgrade
rural revitalization
