摘要
沧源县地处云南高原,该区域由于地质环境复杂多变,构造活动频繁,加之降雨等诱发因素的影响,成为地质灾害多发区域,严重威胁人员生命与财产安全。为了综合评价研究区的地质灾害危险程度,选取高程、坡度、坡向、降雨量、断层距离、水系距离、道路距离、工程岩组8类评价因子,以研究区内192处地质灾害点作为样本,构建超效率数据包络分析(data envelopment analysis, DEA)-信息量模型对研究区进行地质灾害危险性评价,划分低、中、高、极高4个危险性分区,引入接受者操作特征(receiver operating characteristics, ROC)曲线验证评价精度。评价结果显示,沧源县高、极高危险性分区占研究区总面积的54.2%,区内共分布有地质灾害点166处,占灾害点总数的86.5%,灾害点比与面积比的比值随着危险性的提高逐级递增,通过ROC曲线计算得到的曲线下的面积(area under curve, AUC)值为0.755。上述数据表明,基于超效率DEA-信息量模型的地质灾害危险性评价结果比较符合实际,评价精度较高,能够满足对研究区进行地质灾害危险性评价的需要。
Cangyuan County is located in the Yunnan Plateau.Due to the complex and changeable geological environment,frequent tectonic activities,and the influence of precipitation and other inducing factors,this area has become an area with frequent geological disasters,which seriously threatens the safety of human life and property.In order to comprehensively evaluate the risk degree of geological hazards in the study area,eight evaluation factors including elevation,slope,slope aspect,rainfall,fault distance,water system distance,road distance,and engineering rock formation were selected.Taking 192 geological disaster points in the study area as samples,a data envelopment analysis(DEA)-information model was constructed to evaluate the risk of geological disasters in the study area,which is divided into four risk zones of low,medium,high and extremely high,and the receiver operating characteristics(ROC)curve was introduced to verify the evaluation accuracy.The evaluation results show that the high and extremely high risk zones in Cangyuan County account for 54.2%of the total area of the study area.There are 166 geological disaster points distributed in the area,accounting for 86.5%of the total number of disaster points.The ratio of disaster point ratio to area ratio increases step by step with the increase of risk.The area under curve(AUC)value calculated from the ROC curve is 0.755.The above data shows that the geological disaster risk assessment results based on the super efficiency DEA-information model are more realistic,with high evaluation accuracy,and can meet the needs of geological disaster risk assessment in the study area.
作者
张凌煜
薛东剑
陈磊
方国政
闵希超
ZHANG Ling-yu;XUE Dong-jian;CHEN Lei;FANG Guo-zheng;MIN Xi-chao(College of Earth Sciences,Chengdu University of Technology,Chengdu 610059,China)
出处
《科学技术与工程》
北大核心
2022年第29期12782-12790,共9页
Science Technology and Engineering
基金
四川省科技计划(2019YJ0505)
青海省科技计划(2019-SF-130)。
