摘要
为探究传染性疫情下,医疗服务相关不确定性因素和就诊潜在感染风险对大型综合医院门诊号源配置的影响,考虑潜在感染风险、多类患者需求、就诊到达等不确定性因素,构建以最大化医院门诊期望总收益为目标的两阶段随机规划模型,并开展实际案例分析。研究表明:决策者对不同管理目标的重视程度、疫情严重程度与满足患者需求综合收益,将显著影响门诊号源配置策略;医院适当要求门诊相关科室超产能工作,采取感染防控措施,并将更多线下号源调整为线上号源,能够在不显著增加潜在感染风险的前提下,有效增加其期望综合收益与期望总收益。
In order to explore the influence of uncertainties related to medical services and potential infection risks on the allocation of outpatient number sources in large comprehensive hospitals under the infectious epidemic, this study considers the uncertainties such as potential infection risks, multi-type patient demands, and the arrival of medical demands, constructs a two-stage stochastic programming model with the goal of maximizing the expected total benefit of outpatient treatment, and conducts actual case studies. The results show that the importance that decision makers attach to different management goals, the severity of the epidemic, and the comprehensive benefit of serving patients’ needs will significantly affect the outpatient number source allocation strategies. Hospitals appropriately require outpatient departments to work under overcapacity, take infection prevention and control measures, and adjust more offline number sources to online number sources, which can effectively increase the hospital’s expected comprehensive benefit and expected total benefit without significantly increasing the potential infection risks.
作者
罗利
万心滢
赵淑珍
王燚堃
王清毅
LUO Li;WAN Xinying;ZHAO Shuzhen;WANG Yikun;WANG Qingyi(Sichuan University,Chengdu,China)
出处
《管理学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第10期1543-1554,共12页
Chinese Journal of Management
基金
国家社会科学基金资助重大项目(21&ZD128)
国家自然科学基金资助新冠专项项目(72042007)
四川大学华西护理学科发展专项基金资助项目(HXHL20016)。
关键词
传染性疫情
潜在感染风险
门诊号源配置
两阶段随机规划
infections epidemics
potential infection risk
outpatient number source allocation
two-stage stochastic programming
